(This post can also be seen on the forum of OriolesHangout.com)
DOB: 4/12/86 Age: 27
Hometown: Freehold, NJ
College: Monmouth
Drafted: 42nd round, 2008 by San Diego Padres
Height: 6’6″ Weight: 215
Background: The Orioles completed a trade on Nov. 25 with the Padres, sending minor league right-hander Devin Jones for the recently DFA’d Brad Brach. Brach is a tall right-hander who had some success as a mainstay in the Padres bullpen in 2012 but regressed somewhat in 2013, splitting time between AAA and the majors. Brach was a four year member of the Monmouth Hawks rotation where – Fun Fact Alert – he holds the record for career victories and strikeouts. The Padres took a flier on Brach in the 42nd round with the idea that he could have some upside if converted to the bullpen. Right they were, as Brach thrived at every level in the minors, working as the closer at each level he pitched at. I’m an avid follower of minor league stat leaders so recall pretty well Brad Brach being amongst the MiLB leaders in saves in 2010. Another Fun Fact: Brach won the Cal League pitcher of the year in 2010. Sporting a career 2.21 ERA in the minors, Brach made his debut with the Padres on August 30, 2011. Making the opening day roster in 2012, Brach struck out 75 batters in 62.2 innings while pitching to a 3.78 ERA and holding batters to a .207 average. He didn’t have the same dominance in 2013, as an inflated BABIP caused his opponent average to rise to .303 and he struggled limiting the walks, surrendering 19 in 31 innings pitched.
The Good: Brach is mostly a two pitch pitcher (while mixing in the occasional low 80’s sinker as a show me pitch to keep lefties off balance) with the only above average pitch of the combo being his fastball which sits 90-94 MPH with average run. Opponents have batted just .229 off his fastball in the majors. Brach demonstrates a good feel for working all corners of the strikezone even if – as you’ll read in the bad section – he has a tendency to nibble and fall behind to patient hitters. Brach is a strikeout pitcher as evidenced by his 10.06 K/9 in the majors and in the video I watched, does a great job of elevating his fastball with two strikes to get a swinging strike three.
The Bad: Brach’s other pitch is an average slider that’s really more of a slurve than anything with its downward 1-7 movement. He does a decent job of getting wiffs on the pitch when spotted effectively below the strike zone. However, within the zone, batters have hit .289 off the pitch. Brach has struggled to translate the excellent strike throwing abillity he showed in the minors (1.77 BB/9 in 290 innings) to the majors (5.07 BB/9 in 104.2 innings). He has developed a reputation as a nibbler and according to some quotes I read from Padres manager Bud Black, has had issues with simply “trusting his stuff” and going right after hitters. He carries a below average groundball percentage of 35.4% in the majors and his tendency to work his fastball up in the zone leads to many flyballs when hitters put it in play. He’s going from a cavernous Petco Park to a hitters haven in Camden Yards so his flyball tendencies don’t bode well. His career home/road splits also back up that concern.
Home: 2.98 ERA, 4.10 FIP, (.223/.320/.357)
Road: 4.56 ERA, 4.66 FIP, (.258/.369/.410)
Overall Assessment: Average bullpen depth with questionable upside pitching at Camden Yards
Brach reminds me a bit of Kevin Gregg in both his stuff and pitching style and while those two first names may signal bad connotations with most Orioles fans, that’s not a bad upside for Brach to have when he’s not being paid anywhere near “Kevin Gregg” money. Like Gregg, he has a tendency to nibble and may struggle with keeping the ball in the park at Camden Yards. But, he’s shown a penchant for putting hitters away via the strikeout and with his starter’s build, can work multiple innings if needed. That being said, unless he dramatically cuts down on his walks or begins utilizing an effective sinker to improve his groundball %, I have my doubts about Brach making it through the year on the Orioles 40 man roster. A solid-average middle innings man is probably his best case scenario with the Orioles in 2014. His likely scenario is the closer at AAA Norfolk who the Orioles call upon when needed to serve as a decent but replaceable extra arm in the bullpen.
(Thanks to Fangraphs, Mlb.com, and Gaslampball.com for valuable info in putting this together)