Minor League Rotations Anounced

The Orioles minor league affiliates announced their starting rotations today, with the exception of Delmarva, who only announced their first three. The 4th and 5th spots in the Shorebirds rotation are still TBD.

Norfolk Tides

1. Kevin Gausman – RHP, Age: 23 (OH Prospect Rank: 2)
2. Steve Johnson – RHP, Age: 26
3. T.J. McFarland – LHP, Age: 24
4. Suk-Min Yoon – RHP, Age: 27
5. Mike Wright – RHP, Age: 24 (OH Prospect Rank: 8)

Eddie Gamboa and Nick Additon will also likely see some time in the Norfolk rotation as the season progresses.

Bowie Baysox

1. Eduardo Rodriguez – LHP, Age: 21 (OH Prospect Rank: 4)
2. Tyler Wilson – RHP, Age: 24 (OH Prospect Rank: 27)
3. Tim Berry – LHP, Age: 23 (OH Prospect Rank: 12)
4. Zach Davies – RHP, Age: 21 (OH Prospect Rank: 7)
5. Jake Pettit – LHP, Age: 27

Frederick Keys

1. Branden Kline – RHP, Age: 23 (OH Prospect Rank: 24)
2. Parker Bridwell – RHP, Age: 22 (OH Prospect Rank: 15)
3. Matt Taylor – LHP, Age: 23
4. Joe Van Meter – RHP, Age: 25
5. Brady Wager – RHP, Age: 23

Delmarva Shorebirds

1. Steven Brault – LHP, Age: 22 (OH Prospect Rank: 17)
2. Hunter Harvey – RHP, Age: 19 (OH Prospect Rank: 3)
3. Mitch Horacek – LHP, Age: 22
4. TBD
5. TBD

Austin Urban, Sebastian Vader, Bennett Parry, Luc Rennie, and Jon Keller could all be possible candidates to start after those three.

SEC College Baseball Preview, Part 1

This is less of a preview of how the teams will do (although as a college baseball fan, I’ll be sure to give my two cents on that) and more of a highlight of each team’s draft prospects for the fine folks of minor league ball to track during the 2014 season leading up to the MLB draft in June.

Notes: The numbers in parentheses next to each MLB draft prospect are where the player ranks on Matt Garrioch’s Preseason Top 300 Draft Prospects list.

The brief scouting blurbs under each player are based on a combination of what I’ve gathered from Baseball America, and Scouting.com notes as well as my own personal notes of those I’ve seen play.

SEC East

1. South Carolina Gamecocks

Thoughts on the Gamecocks: I go to school here so my opinion is biased but…I’m buying into the deserved preseason hype of the Gamecocks. The team is strong up the middle with Greiner, Pankake, and English, and the rotation looks strong with Friday night starter Jordan Montgomery and Jack Wynkoop returning. Talented arms such as Evan Beal and freshman righty Wil Crowe could also make an impact this season.

MLB Draft Prospects

Grayson Greiner – C – 6’5″, 220 – (53) – 2013 Stats: .298/.365/.424 with 4 HR, 24 BB, 28 K, in 205 at bats

Tall, athletic catcher carries a strong arm and potential to show more in game power in 2014; Bats and throws right-handed; Has late first round potential if power develops; Rated best catching draft prospect in the SEC by Baseball America for 2014.

Joey Pankake – 3B – 6’1″, 200 – (73) – 2013 Stats: .311/.387/.496 with 11 HR, 29 BB, 29 K, in 238 at bats

Wiry strong build with a strong arm for third but questionable throwing accuracy at times from what I’ve seen; Bats and throws right-handed; Approach is disciplined and above average bat speed generates enough power upside for third base standards; Rated best third base prospect in SEC by Baseball America for 2014.

Tanner English – 5’9″, 170 – CF (186) – 2013 Stats: .283/.381/.404 with 1 HR, 21 BB, 46 K, 9-15 SB, in 166 at bats

Slight build but athletic and above average defender in the outfield; Has plus speed which should be utilized more effectively on the basepaths; Bats and throws right-handed; Below average power upside; Potential mid round pick.

Others to watch: Jordan Montgomery – LHP, Evan Beal – RHP, Forrest Koumas – RHP

2. Florida Gators

2013 was a disappointing season for the Gators who were a questionable at large bid pick after hovering around .500 for most of the year. The Gators should rebound with several talented players coming back on offense. A healthy and productive season from Karsten Whitson could also get the Gators back over the 40 win mark.

MLB Draft Prospects

Karsten Whitson – 6’4″, 225 – RHP (34) – 2013 Stats: DNP

The rare former top ten pick out of high school (Padres) that opted for college; Missed 2013 season due to a shoulder procedure; Fastball touches mid 90′s and slider considered above average; If he returns to previous form, he has first round potential

Taylor Gushue – 6’2″, 215 – C (172) – 2013 Stats: .269/.349/.417 with 5 HR, 22 BB, 41 K, in 216 at bats

Switch hitting catcher with average power potential from both sides; Approach could use some work and needs to make more consistent contact; Has a chance to stick at catcher longterm.

Casey Turgeon – 5’9″, 165 – SS (177) – 2013 Stats: .268/.367/.360 with 5 HR, 31 BB, 26 K, 9-for-11 in SB, in 228 at bats

Bats left, throws right; Hits for decent power considering dimunitive size; Capable defender at shortstop; Works count well and reminds me of former Gator, Nolan Fontana.

Ryan Harris – 6’2″, 210 – RHP (206) – 2013 Stats: 3.07 ERA, .247 AVG, 2.30 BB/9, 7.82 K/9, 2 HR allowed, 58.2 IP; (3.03 FIP)

Pitched exclusively in relief in 2013; Hard thrower that has touched mid 90′s and has a decent curve; Max effort delivery suggests he’ll remain in relief at next level.

Josh Tobias – 5’10″, 205 – 3B (221) – 2013 Stats: .260/.341/.351 with 3 HR, 9 BB, 23 K, 6-for-9 in SB, in 154 at bats

Bats switch, throws right; Plays third base for Gators but may be able to handle second; Line drive aproach at the plate with average power potential.

3. Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt lost several key hitters from last year’s lineup as well as Friday night starter Kevin Ziomek. The roster is still talented but very young with an influx of freshman coming in highlighted by Jordan Sheffield. Tyler Beede has a chance to be the best pitcher in the SEC but I don’t forsee the Commodores approaching the level of SEC dominance they achieved in 2013.

MLB Draft Propsects

Tyler Beede – 6’4″, 215 – RHP (5) – 2013 Stats: 14 – 1 record, 2.52 ERA, .187 AVG, 5.61 BB/9, 9.18 K/9, 3 HR allowed, 101 IP; (3.72 FIP)

Former Blue Jays 1st rounder has a chance to go top ten in June; Needs to sharpen command and control of premium arsenal; Rated top pitcher and best overall draft prospect in SEC by Baseball America for 2014.

Chris Harvey – 6’5″, 215 – C (147) – 2013 Stats: .250/.328/.442 in 52 at bats

Should be in mix to take over starting catcher duties from departed Spencer Navin; Strong, athletic kid that “looks the part” but only hit .246 with 0 home runs in 130 Northwoods League at bats over the Summer; More potential than production at this point.

Adam Ravenelle – 6’2″, 190 – RHP (227) – 2013 Stats: 3.18 ERA, .210 AVG, 8 BB, 9 K, in 17 IP

Talented arm with low 90′s fastball that could see an increased role this year; Needs to sharpen command and control; Rated number 19 on BA’s preseason Top 20 SEC draft prospects.

T.J. Pecoraro – 6’0″, 170 -RHP (298) – 2013 Stats: 4 – 1 record, 5.97 ERA, .271 AVG, 3.63 BB/9, 3.89 K/9, 2 HR allowed, 34.2 IP; (4.55 FIP)

Struggled to pitch at 100% health during 2013 season; Solid arsenal highlighted by low 90′s fastball and out pitch curveball; Showed flashes of potential in Hamptons Collegeiate league where BA rated him 4th best prospect; Could rate much higher on this list with a strong (and healthy) 2014 campaign.

Others: Steven Rice – LHP

4. Kentucky

Kentucky faded down the stretch in 2013 after starting out 22-6. I expect them to fare better this season if they can improve upon that sub-par team AVG of .255. They could have one of the better rotations in the SEC highlighted by Kyle Cody and A.J. Reed.

MLB Draft Prospects

A.J. Reed – 6’4″, 240 – LHP/1B (60) – 2013 Stats: 2 – 8 record, 4.04 ERA, .301 AVG, 1.64 BB/9, 5.68 K/9, 6 HR allowed, 82.1 IP; (3.72 FIP)

Two-way talent that also batted .280 with 13 home runs as a first baseman for the Wildcats in 2013; Shows great control of an average three pitch mix; Some like him more as a 1B prospect with his intriguing power potential.

Austin Cousino – 5’10″, 185 – CF (122) – 2013 Stats: .249/.383/.402 with 6 HR, 25 BB, 46 K, 14-for-15 in SB, in 209 at bats

Followed up impressive freshman season with middling sophomore campaign; Bats and throws left handed with average power potential; Plus defender in centerfield with above average running speed.

Chase Mullins – 6’9″, 280 – LHP (137) – 2013 Stats: DNP

Sophomore was injured last season: Former 24th rounder out of high school by Rangers; Monstrous presence on the mound; Throws in the low 90′s; Intriguing name to follow if he stays healthy.

5. Georgia

Georgia rode the caboose in the SEC East standings in 2013 and will likely be amongst the bottom three again. However, the future looks bright with new head coach Scott Stricklin, a master recruiter at Kent State who led the Golden Flashes to an Omaha appearance in 2012.

MLB Draft Prospects

Hunter Cole – 6’1″, 195 – OF (296) – 2013 Stats: .303/.378/.436 with 4 HR, 27 BB, 50 K, in 211 at bats.

Good athlete that can run and throw well enough to handle center; Needs to make more consistent contact but flashes above average power; Potential mid round pick.

Others: Luke Crumley – RHP, Jared Walsh – LHP

6. Tennessee

All nine starters return to the lineup on this young and improving team that could be a sleeper to watch in the SEC East if the rotation performs better than expected.

MLB Draft Prospects

None – They are in full rebuild mode and the future looks promising for the Coach Dave Serrano as his son, right hander Kyle Serrano, should have an impact as soon as his freshman year and could be a first rounder in 2016.

7. Missouri

The Tigers bring up the rear. Their inaugural season in SEC play ended with a 5th place finish in the SEC East but I think Georgia and Tennessee will surpass them in 2014. Rob Zastrzyny is a key loss from last year’s rotation but Brett Graves looks like an intriguing replacement.

MLB Draft Prospects

Brett Graves – 6’1″, 190 – RHP (285) – 2013 Stats: 2 – 5 record, 3.80 ERA, 2.66 BB/9, 4.06 K/9, 9 HR allowed, in 71 IP; (4.96 FIP)

Not imposing but features fastball that can touch 94 MPH; Slider shows flashes above average but needs to work on changeup; Rated 6th best prosepct in NECBL by BA; Previously drafted by hometown Cardinals in 26th round.

Others: Keaton Steele – RHP

SEC College Baseball Preview, Part 2

SEC West

1. LSU

They lost a couple big names from last years 50 win team, but LSU looks like the top dog to beat again in the West. Aaron Nola and Alex Bregman should be All-American types again.

MLB Draft Prospects

Aaron Nola – 6’1″, 185 – RHP (29) – 2013 Stats: 12 – 1 record, 1.57 ERA, .188 AVG, 1.29 BB/9, 8.71 K/9, 4 HR, 126 IP; (2.37 FIP)

Former Blue Jays 2nd Rounder in 2011; Could go higher this time in June; Excellent control as evidenced by Cliff Lee-esque walk rate; Throws a low 90′s two seamer with an above average power curve and changeup that flashes plus; Reminds me of Jeremy Hellickson

Mark Laird – 6’1″, 175 – CF (247) – 2013 Stats: .307/.371/.344 with 0 HR, 23 BB, 31 K, 6-for-11 in SB, in 248 at bats

Draft eligible sophomore; Great athlete that was standout football player in high school too; Has contact oriented approach and works count well; Average power upside; Above average running speed and defender in center

Others To Watch: Christian Ibarra – 2B/3B

2. Mississippi State

Mississippi State made the best playoff run in team history in 2013 as they made it all the way to the CWS finals where fell short of the National Title to UCLA. Key hitter Hunter Renfroe departs on offense but the pitching staff looks to be strong again and the Bulldogs should be one of the “top dogs” again in the SEC West.

MLB Draft Prospects

Jacob Lindgren – 5’11″, 205 – LHP (161) – 2013 Stats: 4 – 3 record, 4.18 ERA, 2.89 BB/9, 10.5 K/9, 2 HR allowed, in 56 IP; (2.68 FIP)

Pitched much better than ERA indicated; Fastball sits low 90′s but has touched 95 MPH; Slider is an outpitch; Likely Friday night starter in 2014; Looks like more of a reliever in pro ball.

Brandon Woodruff – 6’2″, 230 – RHP (165) – 2013 Stats: 4.32 ERA, .246 AVG, 9 BB, 15 K, in 18.2 IP

Former unsigned 5th rounder out of high school has talent to make big leap in 2014; Fastball has touched mid 90′s and shows promising breaking ball.

Others: Jonathan Holder – RHP

3. Texas A&M

A middle of the pack club in their SEC debut, I think the Aggies could be a sleeper contender in the West this year with 7 starters returning to the lineup. Key arms like Daniel Mengden and Parker Ray return as well to the pitching staff.

MLB Draft Prospects

Daniel Mengden – 6’1″, 210 – RHP (71) – 2013 Stats: 8 – 4 record, 2.11 ERA, .201 AVG, 1.95 BB/9, 7.64 K/9, 7 HR allowed, 110.2 IP; (3.25 FIP)

Two way player; played for Team USA in 2013; Better prospect on the mound with heavy low 90′s sinker that has touched mid 90′s and average secondaries; Great strike thrower although sinker command can get spotty at times.

Gandy Stubblefield – 6’3″, 205 – RHP (274) – 2013 Stats: Pitched just 1 inning

Injuries have marred the promising righty’s first two seasons; Named number one closer over Summer in Texas League; Fastball has touched 94-95 MPH; Will likely be in mix for late inning relief role.

Others To Watch: Parker Ray – RHP, Corey Ray – RHP, , Mitchell Nau – C

4. Arkansas

The Razorbacks were one of the more hyped preseason teams in 2013 but a below average offensive unit held them back somewhat from meeting those lofty expectations. Top hitter Brian Anderson returns but the entire weekend rotation is gone so I think the Razorbacks will take a step back in 2014. Chris Oliver could be an X-factor in the rotation.

MLB Draft Prospects

Brian Anderson – 6’3, 195 – 2B/3B (96) – 2013 Stats: .325/.448/.488 with 4 HR, 41 BB, 33 K, 6-for-7 in SB, in 209 at bats

Reminds me of former LSU second baseman JaCoby Jones; Great athlete with inconsistent track record with wood bats and position questions; Hit just .227 in the Cape over the Summer; Works count well; Plus throwing arm; May fit better in outfield.

Others: Chris Oliver – RHP

5. Alabama

Alabama returns seven starters on an offense that was below average by SEC standards in 2013. If that group sees a couple breakout performers and the talented rotation lives up to expectations, the Tide could make some noise this year.

MLB Draft Prospects

(None ranked in Matt Garrioch’s Top 300)

However, righthander Spencer Turnbull looks like a name to watch. He’s a burly 6’3, 230 pound righthander who sits low 90′s with his fastball and will anchor the Crimson Tide rotation.

6. Ole Miss

Ole Miss lost several key arms like Bobby Wahl and Mike Mayers, along with catcher Stuart Turner on offense. I expect them to take a step back in 2014. A breakout year from Chris Ellis could help improve the team’s outlook.

MLB Draft Prospects

Chris Ellis – 6′5“, 205 – RHP (53) – 2013 Stats: 5.57 ERA, .348 AVG, 4.71 BB/9, 6.86 K/9, in 21 IP; (5.49 FIP)

Two seamer that has touched 94-95 MPH gets great tail from what I saw; Still has some physical projection; Command needs to become more consistent, especially of secondary pitches; Performed well on the Cape; A breakout Junior campaign could put him in first round discussion.

Senquez Golson – 5’9″, 195 – CF (115) – 2013 Stats: DNP Chose to sit out 2013 to concentrate full time on football but expected to return to baseball team in 2014; Toolsy, athletic type that has intriguing upside if baseball skills catch up.

Hawtin Buchanan – 6′9“, 250 – RHP (140) – 2013 Stats: 6.75 ERA, 6 BB, 10 K, in 8 IP

Big kid that throws hard but consistent command is an issue; May fit better in relief

Sikes Orvis – 6’2″, 225 – 1B (249) – 2013 Stats: .237/.325/.320 with 3 HR, 19 BB, 31 K, in 169 at bats

Disappointing sophomore campaign; Big power potential; Has reportedly put on some good muscle and performed well in the Fall; Breakout Junior year with much improved power totals could make him intriguing prospect.

Josh Laxer – 6’2″, 210 – RHP (289) – 2013 Stats: 3.21 ERA, .238 AVG, 4.17 BB/9, 4.61 K, 1 HR allowed, 42 IP; (4.18 FIP)

Former Nationals draftee in 2011; Throws low 90′s sinker with average secondaries; Should make jump to weekend rotation this season;

7. Auburn

The Tigers have been projected by the SEC coaches to bring up the rear, which I agree with. New head coach Sunny Galloway brought in a 13th ranked recruiting class bringing future promise to a team that appears to be going through a rebuilding phase.

MLB Draft Prospects

Rock Rucker – 6’5″, 220 – RF (257) – 2013 Stats: Only appeared in 2 games

Draft eligible sophomore; Bats and throws left; Athletic with above average speed and power potential; Rated 3rd best prospect in Florida League by BA; Should be in mix for starting outfelder role.

Others: Jay Gonzalez, OF

End Of Season Review: Delmarva Shorebirds

Below is a recap of the team statistical leaders. For batters, the leaders needed a minimum of a 240 at bats to qualify. For pitcher, the qualifying leaders needed to have pitched at least 40 innings this Summer.

(Note: Josh Hader won’t be included in this due to being traded to the Astros)

Rank	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
1	Lucas Herbst .276	Tucker Nathans 9	Creede Simpson 49	Tucker Nathans .337	Tucker Nathans .467
2	Tucker Nathans .271	Creede Simpson 9	Adrian Marin 48	Wynston Sawyer .336	Creede Simpson .385
3	Nik Balog .266	Wynston Sawyer 8	Torsten Boss 45	Creede Simpson .334	Wynston Sawyer .384
4	Adrian Marin .265	Torsten Boss 7	Lucas Herbst 41	Torsten Boss .333	Lucas Herbst .372
5	Creede Simpson .248	Herbst + Hutter 5	Hutter + Lorenzo 41	Lucas Herbst .324	Nik Balog .371

Rank	W	ERA	K/9	WHIP	FIP
1	Parker Bridwell 8	Lex Rutledge 1.45	Lex Rutledge 9.35	Lex Rutledge 1.02	Lex Rutledge 2.67
2	Matt Hobgood 7	Dennis Torres 3.22	Parker Bridwell 9.08	Mychal Givens 1.24	Brady Wager 2.76
3	Juan Guzman 6	Bennett Parry 3.49	Bennett Parry 7.89	Bennett Parry 1.30	Mark Blackmar 3.32
4	Rutledge + Taylor 4	Matt Hobgood 3.71	Mychal Givens 7.59	Brady Wager 1.30	Mychal Givens 3.36
5	Rennie + Blackmar 4	Matt Taylor 3.77	Dennis Torres 7.46	Luc Rennie 1.32	Parker Bridwell 3.43

Instant Analysis (Hitters): Not much to discuss here when the team leader in average was .276.

– Lucas Herbst and Tucker Nathans both had good but not great seasons with Delmarva but are old for the level and look more like solid organizational players than potential big leaguers.

– Nathans is an intriguing story at least as an undrafted free agent signing that played both Soccer and Baseball at Fairfield. He has some versatility defensively and a decent batting eye with occasional pop at the plate. He might make a useful AAA depth type which wouldn’t be a bad outcome at all for someone undrafted.

– The best prospect of this mediocre bunch is 19 year old shortstop Adrian Marin, who held his own (but didn’t dominate) both offensively and defensively all year at Delmarva.

– Gregory Lorenzo has some tools (bat speed and running speed) and plays the game with an energizer bunny level of motor. However, his swing isn’t pretty and his pitch recognition is well below average leading to serious contact issues. He’s young but doesn’t look like anything more than a fringe prospect. The same can be said for Roderick Bernadina.

– Finally, there’s catcher Wynston Sawyer who is my pick for sleeper breakthrough candidate at Frederick next year. He had a better showing this year, repeating Delmarva, with improved plate discipline while tapping into his above average power a little more. If he can stay healthy and get a full season of at bats next year, he could become something more than the fringe prospect he is at the moment. Still, just 21.

Instant Analysis (Pitchers): Overall, it was a below average year for the Shorebirds in terms of pitching prospects for us to discuss. It doesn’t help that the best young pitcher Josh Hader was shipped away to Houston in the Bud Norris deal.

The most exciting talent of the bunch is Parker Bridwell; a returnee to the Shorebirds this year who showed significant growth in his ability to miss bats but needs to work on more consistent command from start to start. He’s an excellent athlete with a potential plus fastball and slider but is a work in progress to remain a starter. We’ll see how he handles the jump up to Frederick next year.

Branden Kline also stands out as an exciting young talent with a hard fastball and an above average slider. His season was cut short due an ankle injury unfortunately. His delivery still needs some altering and his fastball is straight. He probably ends up back in the bullpen.

Lex Rutledge might be the highest rated relief prospect in the Orioles minors (according to me). The lefthander has a strong, athletic build and some explosiveness in his delivery, allowing him to generate a fastball velocity in the 91-95 MPH range with some life and two breaking balls, the best of which is a power curve. He has his command issues at times but it didn’t matter as his raw stuff overwhelmed SALLY league batters. He could be knocking on the door for big league innings in 2014 if he dominates in Bowie like he did at Delmarva.

Matt Taylor had a nice full season in the Delmarva rotation after splitting time between relieving and starting last season. He’s a bit fringy as a SP prospect as his command is mediocre and while his fastball does have above average sink, it only tops out around 89 MPH. Longterm, I could see him getting a shot at pitching out of a major league bullpen but I’m not sold on him as a starter.

Our first two picks in the putrid ’09 Draft, Matt Hobgood and Mychal Givens both pitched out of the Delmarva bullpen. Both saw their velocities creep into the 93-95 MPH range as the season wore on which gives them some promise as potential bullpen options at the MLB level.

Top 5 Shorebirds Prospects

5) Matt Taylor – LHP

4) Lex Rutledge – LHP

3) Branden Kline – RHP

2) Parker Bridwell – RHP

1) Adrian Marin – SS

Others To Watch/ Juan Guzman – RHP, Wynston Sawyer – C, Mychal Givens – RHP, Matt Hobgood -RHP

End Of Season Review: Aberdeen Ironbirds

It was a fun summer for the Ironbirds who posted just their second winning season (41-32) in their 11-year existence. 2013 also marked the first time in team history that the I-birds reached the New York-Penn League postseason. Unfortunately they dropped the round one playoff series to the Tri-City Valley Cats. Below is a recap of the team statistical leaders. For batters, the leaders needed a minimum of a 100 at bats to qualify. For pitcher, the qualifying leaders needed to have pitched at least 20 innings this Summer.

Rank	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
1	Trey Mancini .328	Conor Bierfeldt 12	Conor Bierfeldt 36	Trey Mancini .382	Conor Bierfeldt .511
2	Sam Kimmel .277	Hector Veloz 5	Trey Mancini 35	Mike Yastrzemski .362	Trey Mancini .449
3	Mike Yastrzemski .273	Trey Mancini 3	Hector Veloz 27	Conor Bierfeldt .351	Mike Yastrzemski .420
4	Conor Bierfeldt .264	Mike Yastrzemski 3	Mike Yastrzemski 25	Jeff Kemp .319	Sam Kimmel .378
5	Jeff Kemp .240	Jeff Kemp 3	Austin Wynns 21	Sam Kimmel .319	Jeff Kemp .370

Rank	W	ERA	K/9	WHIP	FIP
1	Sebastian Vader 7	Jimmy Yacabonis 1.52	Alex Santana 12.83	Mitch Horacek 0.94	Donnie Hart 2.03
2	Mitch Horacek 5	Steven Brault 2.09	Donnie Hart 9.75	Jimmy Yacabonis 0.98	Mitch Horacek 2.33
3	Janser Severino 3	Alex Santana 2.14	Jose Figuereo 8.51	Sebastian Vader 1.03	Sebastian Vader 2.59
4	Austin Urban 3	Donnie Hart 2.25	Jimmy Yacabonis 8.49	Steven Brault 1.09	Alex Santana 2.61
5	Hart + Yacabonis 3	Sebastian Vader 2.43	Janser Severino 8.27	Alex Santana 1.22	Steven Brault 2.71

Instant Analysis (Hitters): Ask a season ticket holder at Ironbirds games, which I’m not but my friend’s friend’s cousin is, and they’ll probably mention that the three headed monster of Trey Mancini, Conor Bierfeldt, and Mike Yastrzemski spearheaded the offensive output for the I-birds this Summer.

– Take a gander at the statistical leaders, and you can make that conclusion on your own.

– Mancini, 8th rounder from Notre Dame, is the best prospect of those three as a bat first prospect who could make a nice bench/ platoon player in the majors one day if develops more in game power production.

– Bierfeldt and Yaz’s grandson are both solid players in their own right, but look more like solid organizational types that will have long careers at the AA/AAA level than potential big leaguers. As always, I could be wrong and am rooting for both to reach the majors.

– Bierfeldt is an interesting case as a 29th rounder from D3 Western Connecticut State who brings some serious pop to the table. He also brings a swing and strike out rate reminiscent of Mark Reynolds. We’ll see how he holds up against advanced competition but definitely an intriguing name to watch.

– Yazzy doesn’t do one thing particularly great but is a solid, fundamental baseball player that plays the game hard and does everything asked of him by the coaches. His upside could be a solid major league backup OF.

– That’s about it in the way of hitting prospects. Hector Veloz has some thunder in his bat but his approach is a mess as is his defense at third. The local boy Jeff Kemp (Archbishop Spaulding) is a solid infield defender but likely lacks the hitting skills to advance beyond Bowie.

Instant Analysis (Pitchers): The Ironbirds pitching staff is chock full of guys who I could see pitching of a major league bullpen one day. Steven Brault, Mitch Horacek, Sebastian Vader, and Austin Urban were the rotation stalwarts and all handled themselves well against this level of competition.

– Horacek has the best chance of those four at remaining a starter by AA. He has excellent command and control of an average three pitch mix and a good pitcher’s frame. Best case scenario could be an inning eater number 5 starter or a decent LOOGY in the bullpen.

– Brault looks like a potential lefty reliever in the bigs. He works more off deception than pure stuff so I’m skeptical he’ll get righty batters out consistently at advanced levels.

– (Darth) Vader is a tall, athletic righthander with an average fastball that sits around 90 MPH and a good slider. He might be more effective in relief at higher levels.

– Urban has a good arm but below average command may give him troubles at advanced levels.

– Relief Pitcher Alex Santana had a helluva season with a fastball around 90 MPH with some life and an outpitch curveball that overwhelmed most NY-Penn League hitters. That 12.83 K/9 is a promising indicator of success at higher levels. He will need to cut that walk rate down to have consistent success though. Interesting relief prospect to watch.

– Donnie Hart might be my favorite Ironbird reliever to follow going forward. He’s a pure deception guy with a fastball that only tops out at 86. With MPH but a lefty sidewinder release point somewhat reminiscent of Darren O’Day. He had great success with the Ironbirds, pitching as the closer toward the season’s end.

– Finally, there’s Jimmy Yacabonis and Janser Severino who both have some effort in their deliveries and get get their fastball’s up to 93-94 MPH. They are intriguing bullpen guys to watch.

Top 5 Ironbirds Prospects

5) Mike Yastrzemski – OF

4) Sebastian Vader – RHP

3) Steven Brault – LHP

2) Mitch Horacek – LHP

1) Trey Mancini – 1B

Others to Watch/ Conor Bierfeldt, Hector Veloz,  Janser Severino, Alex Santana, Jimmy Yacabonis, Donnie Hart

End Of Season Review: GCL Orioles

The GCL (Gulf Coast League) Orioles play in sunny Sarasota, FL and this year they finished with an even 30-30 won-loss record, good for 2nd place in the GCL South Division. Below is a table I constructed highlighting the top five performers (that qualify) in various hitting and pitching categories. Below that, I list my personal top five prospects that played for this team that you should keep an eye on going forward.

(Note: The minimum at bats for hitters is 85. Minimum innings pitched for pitchers is 13)

Rank	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
1	Chance Sisco .371	Andrickson Zorilla 3	Ronarsy Ledesma 28	Chance Sisco .475	Chance Sisco .464
2	Oswill Lartiguez .284	J. Schoop (Rehab) 3	Jesus Martinez 21	Justin Viele .406	Ronarsy Ledesma .400
3	Justin Viele .273	Jesus Martinez 2	Andrickson Zorilla 18	Alex Murphy .330	Alex Murphy .363
4	Ronarsy Ledesma .258	Justin Viele 2	Yariel Vargas 14	Andrickson Zorilla .323	Justin Viele .354
5	Randolph Gassaway .242	Ronarsy ledesma 2	Justin Viele 14	Ronarsy Ledesma .319	Oswill Lartiguez .353

Rank	W	ERA	K/9	WHIP	FIP
1	Garrett Cortright 5	Garrett Cortright 1.11	Dioni Dominguez 12.56	Stefan Crichton 0.70	Hunter Harvey 0.95
2	Caleb Kellogg 4	Dioni Dominguez 1.26	Hunter Harvey 12.15	Hunter Harvey 0.90	Jon Keller 1.44
3	Stefan Crichton 3	Hunter Harvey 1.35	Stephen Tarpley 10.71	Dariel Delgado 0.97	Stephen Tarpley 1.53
4	Augey Bill 3	Stefan Crichton 1.96	Yi-Hsiang Lin 10.67	Jonatan Isenia 1.08	Caleb Kellogg 2.23
5	Dariel Delgado 3	Stephen Tarpley 2.14	Jon Keller 10.57	Caleb Kellogg 1.09	Stefan Crichton 2.46

Instant Analysis (Hitters): As you can see, this was a the Chance Sisco show down in the GCL on offense in 2013.

– But, if we remove him from the equation, you see a mediocre, underwhelming group of statistical “leaders” on the GCL front. What’s most disappointing about the underwhelming group of stat leaders is that the Orioles supplemental 1st rounder Josh Hart couldn’t crack the Top Five in any of the above categories.

– In other words, Josh Hart isn’t off to the kind of start we were hoping to see to start out his professional career. None the less, he’s still a solid prospect and ranks as the top positional player prospect from this year’s GCL squad to follow going forward.

– Chance Sisco is a close second. If he hits anything close to this at Delmarva next year and more importantly earns the organization’s trust as a guy that can stick at catcher, he will surpass Hart in prospect status (in my eyes at least).

– I have faith that Hart will make adjustments and put up a better offensive showing in the future. However, his lack of power production was a concern for me on draft day and is an even bigger concern for me now. Will he develop it? Stay tuned.

Instant Analysis (Pitchers): The pitchers, on the other hand, put together some impressive numbers this summer which fits the usual trend that the GCL is a pitching friendly league. It’s very encouraging to see the Orioles 1st and 3rd rounders Hunter Harvey and Stephen Tarpley off to a great start in their young careers. Not surprisingly, they rate as the GCL team’s top two pitching prospects to follow next year.

– Dioni Dominguez is also intriguing as a hard throwing reliever but with walk troubles. Caleb Kellogg also looks like an intriguing relief prospect to follow with a solid low 90’s two seamer and a good slider.

– Garrett Cortright had a real nice season and looks like a solid organizational pitcher which would be a great find in the 40th round out of Canisius. The same can be said for Stefan Crichton.

– Jon Keller has the durable starters frame and a lively fastball and put up good numbers in the GCL as well. The key for him will be developing his below average secondaries and improving his command.

– Jake Bray only pitched 12 innings but I like the reports I’ve heard about his fastball and slider and he’s a great athlete who doubled as a third basemen at his community college. I have him rounding out the top five prospects listed below.

– Overall, there’s a nice collection of young pitching talent follow from this year’s GCL squad.

Top Five GCL Prospects

5) Jake Bray – RHP

4) Stephen Tarpley – LHP

3) Chance Sisco – C

2) Josh Hart – CF

1) Hunter Harvey – RHP

Other Names To Watch/ Travis Seabrooke – LHP, Caleb Kellogg – RHP, Jonah Heim – C, Alex Murphy – C, Jon Keller – RHP

End Of Season Minorioles ISO Leaders

Explaining  ISO to the layman:

– It is a statistic

– It stands for Isolated Power

– It is a synch to calculate

– It is a batter’s SLG minus AVG

– It helps us measure a batters raw power totals for the season

– .100 = Bad; .150 = Average; .200 = Great

If you want a more detailed explanation, go here.

Great, now that we got that out-of-the-way, I’m going to list how all of the qualifying Orioles minor leaguers performed in this category. The top performer in the minor leagues will be crowned the ISO-Man of the year or something stupid like that.

By qualifying, I mean, the player has to be at the very least a fringe prospect. He also has to have had sufficient number of at bats. For players at the full season level, sufficient to me means they got 250 at bats. For players at the short season level, I’ll be nice and include anyone with at least 100 at bats.

For all you platoon fanatics out there, I’m also going to list the top ISO performers against left-handed and right-handed pitching.

GCL O’s

Ronarsy Ledesma (3B) = .147 (.145 L / .148 R)

Alex Murphy (C/3B) = .132 (.333 L / .082 R)

Chance Sisco (C) = .091 (.261 L / .039 R)

Randolph Gassaway (1B) = .082 (.031 L / .100 R)

Oswill Lartiguez (OF) = .069 (.200 L / .026 R)

Josh Hart (CF) = .068 (.026 L / .085 R)

Aberdeen

Conor Bierfeldt (RF) = .247 (.155 L / .288 R)

Mike Yasztremski (OF) = .147 (.233 L / .111 R)

Hector Veloz (3B) = .129 (.084 L / .134 R)

Trey Mancini (1B) = .121 (.136 L / .115 R)

Delmarva Shorebirds

Wynston Sawyer (C) = .146 (.035 L / .187 R)

Torsten Boss (2B/3B) = .120 ( .111 L / .122 R)

Lucas Herbst (OF) = .096 (.108 L / .092 R)

Adrian Marin (SS) = .091 (.075 L / .094)

Roderick Bernadina (OF) = .085 (.042 L / .095 R)

Gregory Lorenzo (CF) = .082 (.068 L / .085 R)

Frederick Keys

Michael Ohlman (C/1B) = .212 (.242 L / .203 R) (22%)

Brenden Webb (RF) = .144 (.045 L / .163 R) (31.8%)

Glynn Davis (CF) = .079 (.141 L / .065 R) (18%)

Bowie Baysox

Caleb Joseph (C/1B/LF) = .195 (.228 L / .182 R) (16.1%)

Christian Walker (1B)  = .153 (.200 L / .144 R)

Garabez Rosa (UTL) = .098 (.095 L / .099 R)

John Reuttiger (OF) = .041 (.035 L / .047 R)

Norfolk Tides

Buck Britton (UTL) = .144 (.225 L / .111 R)

Jonathan Schoop (SS/2B) = .140 (.155 L / .136 R)

The ISO Leaderboard

Rank	Name	ISO (Total)	Rank	Name	ISO (L)	Rank	Name	ISO (R)
1	Conor Bierfeldt	.247	1	Alex Murphy	.333	1	Conor Bierfeldt	.288
2	Micheal Ohlman	.212	2	Chance Sisco	.261	2	Michael Ohlman	.203
3	Caleb Joseph	.195	3	Michael Ohlman	.242	3	Caleb Joesph	.187
4	Jonathan Schoop	.182	4	Mike Yastrzemski	.233	4	Wynston Sawyer	.182
5	Christian Walker	.153	5	Caleb Joseph	.228	5	Brenden Webb	.163
6	Mike Yastrzemski	.147	6			6
6	Ronarsy Ledesma	.147	7			7
8	Wynston Sawyer	.146	8			8
9	Buck Britton	.144	9			9
9	Brenden Webb	.144	10			10

Winner Winner!!! Conor Bierfeldt is our ISO-Man of the year. Excited to see how those impressive power numbers translate over a full season of work next year and whether the 29th rounder can establish himself as a legitimate prospect.

Photo By: Litchfield County Sports

That’s all, folks

Stay classy, not crassy

Minorioles HOTSHEET (August)

With the minor league seasons coming to a close in the next week or so, this marks the finals HOTSHEET of the year, folks. After, I’m finished here, I will do end of season recaps for each affiliate.

Who had the hottest month of August? One of the Orioles more exciting young lefthanders to come through the system…

1) Eduardo Rodriguez – LHP – Bowie Baysox (AA)

Age: 20

Top 20 Rank: 4

August Numbers:

GS	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
6	3	1	2.94	33.2	30	1	9	35	0.82	.236

After appearing on the “not-list” in July during his first taste of AA ball, E-Rod made an adjustment which I suggested he would, showing much better control this month. Much better control = much better results with a talented arm like Rodriguez. Look for him to crack my Top 100 list going into the 2014 season.

2) Mike Wright – RHP – Bowie Baysox (AA)

Age: 23

Mid-Season Top 20 Rank: 10

August Numbers:

GS	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
6	3	1	2.29	35.1	37	3	7	35	0.94	.268

Mike Wright finished the season on a very strong note. Bowie manager Gary Kendall said in an interview with Steve Melewski, “He has a good fastball and his slider and changeup have made some strides. He is a good three-pitch guy and he is still developing his curveball,” Kendall said. “He has gone deeper into games and maintained his stamina and arm strength through the year. His maturity from a year ago is the key to his success.”

3) Caleb Joseph – C – Bowie Baysox (AA)

Age: 27

Top 20 Rank: HM

August Numbers:

G	AVG	AB	H	HR	RBI	2B	3B	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
30	.353	119	42	4	18	8	0	9	18	.392	.521	.913

Caleb Joseph’s Age 26/27 breakout season with Bowie ended with a tremendous month of August. He’s a fringe prospect but I think he’ll get a chance with the Orioles or some other team as a bench player who can back up catcher and first if/when needed. His ability to crush left handed pitching intrigues me.

4) Dariel Alvarez – OF – Bowie Baysox (AA)

Age: 24

Mid-Season Top 20 Rank: HM

August Numbers:

G	AVG	AB	H	HR	RBI	2B	3B	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
20	.346	73	26	4	10	4	1	4	10	.390	.603	.993

The Orioles latest Cuban signee of to a nice start to his professional career. The numbers listed above span three levels: GCL Orioles, Frederick Keys, and Bowie Baysox. It is worth noting that while he obliterated Rookie and Single A ball as someone with his experience should, he has only batted .200 in 25 at bats with Bowie. He’ll be heading off to the Arizona Fall League in October. Should be interesting to hear the reports on him there.

5) Michael Ohlman – C/DH – Frederick Keys (High A)

Age: 22

Mid-Season Top 20 rank: 9

August Numbers:

G	AVG	AB	H	HR	RBI	2B	3B	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
29	.343	102	35	1	7	12	0	15	27	.433	.490	.923

Odd month for Ohlman in that he smacked 12 doubles and a home run yet only drove in 7 runs. None-the-less, it is a strong finish to Ohlman’s huge breakout season that has turned him from interesting sleeper to legitimate top ten prospect overnight.

6) Trey Mancini – 1B – Aberdeen Ironbirds (A-)

Age: 21

Mid-Season Top 20 Rank: HM

August Numbers:

G	AVG	AB	H	HR	RBI	2B	3B	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
27	.344	96	36	2	10	5	1	12	12	.418	.481	.863

Back to back strong hitting performances by Mancini in July and August. As mentioned in his draftee profile, I’ve been a big Mancini fan going back to earlier this Spring when he tore the cover off the ball at Notre Dame. The dude knows how to freakin hit and has some major league pop in that bat. If he can tap into that raw power more consistently and continues to hit like this at higher levels, the Orioles have themselves a real interesting prospect and a great find in the 8th round.

7) Parker Bridwell – RHP – Delmarva Shorebirds (Low A)

Age: 21

Mid-Season Top 20 rank: 17

August Numbers:

GS	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
5	1	1	3.73	31.1	31	1	8	34	0.81	.258

A good finish to the year for the talented righthander highlighted by an Aug. 15 start in which he pitched 8 shutout innings of two-hit ball with 12 strikeouts and no walks. Bridwell remains something of an enigma going forward as a starter with his command inconsistencies a concern. However, time is still on his side, and no one in the organization doubts his natural abilities; just a matter of refining his approach to pitching and feel for command. He always has an intriguing fallback option as a power reliever if starting doesn’t work out.

8) Zach Davies – RHP – Frederick Keys (High A)

Age: 20

Mid-Season Top 20 Rank: 12

August Numbers:

GS	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
6	2	4	3.60	35	37	3	9	34	0.68	.268

Zach Davies lost four games which means nothing when grading him as a prospect. He pitched well showing an impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio and remains a promising young arm to watch at AA next year to see if his average arsenal plays up against better hitters.

9) Josh Stinson – RHP – Norfolk Tides (AAA)

Age: 25

Mid-Season Top 20 Rank: HM

August Numbers:

GS	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
5	2	1	1.82	24.2	15	2	13	17	0.86	.176

Stinson finished his season at Norfolk strong although his 4.46 FIP suggests his ERA was a bit fluky which is why he finds himself at number 9 on the Hotsheet. Still, Stinson has improved greatly in his performance and consistency from start to start at Norfolk this year, pitching to a 2.59 ERA and holding opponents to a .199 AVG over his final ten starts. He looks like a decent long relief option for the Orioles now that he has been recalled to the majors. His best pitch is his fastball which can touch 93-94 MPH with average movement in shorter stints.

10) Tim Berry – LHP – Frederick Keys (High A)

Age: 22

Mid-Season Top 20 Rank: 20

August Numbers:

GS	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
6	2	1	3.55	33	33	4	13	21	1.24	.256

Tim Berry finished the season strong. I would have liked to see him get some time at AA but I’ m guessing the Orioles brass wanted to see him stick at one level all year and learn to dominate consistently before giving him the big jump to AA. He’s an interesting prospect who has made strides in his strike throwing ability. He flashes quality stuff but with average at best command and will need to better neutralize right handed batters if he’s going to pass the AA test next season.

Who’s Not Hot

Jonathan Schoop – 2B – AAA – Ready or not here he comes as Schoop has been summoned to the majors. He didn’t fare to well in August, batting just .239/.268/.376 with a mediocre 3-to-25 Strikeout/Walk ratio over 117 at bats.

Devin Jones – RHP – AA – In his final 6 starts in august, Jones pitched to a 5.88 ERA over 33.2 Innings, with 39 hits, 6 HR, and 17 BB’s allowed.

Tyler Wilson – RHP – AA – Wilson also scuffled down the stretch after a strong month of July: 5.60 ERA over 27.1 Innings, with 33 hits, and 4 HR allowed.

Glynn Davis – CF – High A – Davis continued to show no punch with the bat, hittng .217 in August with no home runs.

Matt Taylor – LHP – Low A – After earning the top spot for July’s Hotsheet, Taylor wet the bed in August pitching to a 6.03 ERA over 6 starts.

Other Notes

Ironbirds Pitcher of the Month: Hunter Harvey – RHP

August Numbers:

GS	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
3	0	1	2.25	12	11	0	4	15	2.33	.239

Hunter Harvey has lived up to hype I created thus far, with a several impressive pitching performances between the GCL and Aberdeen.

Ironbirds Hitter of the Month: Conor Bierfeldt – OF

August Numbers:

G	AVG	AB	H	HR	RBI	2B	3B	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
24	.345	87	30	5	18	4	2	14	22	.441	.667	1.108

Big Bier had himself one heluva August. While he looks more like a solid organizational type than a legit prospect (which is why he wasn’t featured on the Hotsheet), he does have an above average power tool going for him which makes him an intriguing name to follow next year. Nice find by the scouting department in the 29th round.

Minorioles HOTSHEET (JULY)

It’s that time again to recap how who had the best month down on the Orioles family farm in the form of a Baseball America inspired prospect hotsheet.

1) Matt Taylor – LHP – Delmarva Shorebirds (Low A)

Age: 22

Mid-Season Top 20 Rank: HM

July Numbers:

G	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
6	1	3	1.85	39	31	0	14	26	1.97	.220

The best performer amongst the minor league pitching prospects in July is Matt Taylor. He has flown under the radar because he is repeating a level, with the Orioles stretching him out as a starter this year. The results have been pretty good as he learns to better control his 88-90 MPH sinking fastball. Ultimately, I think his best fit is in the bullpen but he has earned the right to continue working as a starter at higher levels.

2) Trey Mancini – 1B – Aberdeen Ironbirds (A-)

Age: 21

Mid-Season Top 20 Rank: HM

July Numbers:

G	AVG	AB	H	HR	RBI	2B	3B	BB	S0	OBP	SLG	OPS
27	.346	104	36	1	15	9	1	6	17	.383	.481	.863

Mancini makes his debut on the Hotsheet which should tell you I now view him as a legitimate enough prospect worthy enough of inclusion. He had a tremendous month of July.

3) Tyler Wilson – RHP – Bowie Baysox (AA)

Age: 23

Mid-Season Top 20 Rank: 15

July Numbers:

G	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
6	3	1	2.27	35.2	28	3	4	27	0.53	.214

With an average arsenal, Wilson still thrived at AA in July, proving he is a legitimate prospect with his above average command and pitching intellect.

4) Adrian Marin – SS – Delmarva Shorebirds (Low A)

Age: 19

Mid-Season Top 20 Rank: 14

July Numbers:

G	AVG	AB	H	HR	RBI	2B	3B	BB	S0	OBP	SLG	OPS
22	.321	81	26	1	5	3	0	4	18	.353	.395	.748

Marin’s best month so far as a young professional.

5) Mike Wright – RHP – Bowie Baysox (AA)

Age: 23

Mid-Season Top 20 Rank: 10

July Numbers:

G	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
5	2	0	2.12	29.2	31	1	6	26	1.03	.272

After appearing in the “not-sheet” in June, Mike “wrighted” the ship with a strong July showing.

6) Michael Ohlman – C/DH – Frederick Keys (High A)

Age: 22

Mid-Season Top 20 rank: 9

July Numbers:

G	AVG	AB	H	HR	RBI	2B	3B	BB	S0	OBP	SLG	OPS
26	.270	100	27	6	19	4	0	12	24	.360	.490	.850

Ohlman cooled off a bit from the monster June performance put still showed an above average power and patience combo that makes him a very intriguing prospect going forward.

7) Tim Berry – LHP – Frederick Keys (High A)

Age: 22

Mid-Season Top 20 Rank: 20

July Numbers:

G	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
5	2	2	3.77	31	27	2	5	26	1.91	.231

Tim Berry with another good string of outings in July. I’d like to see him bumped up to the AA testing grounds soon as he has nothing left to prove at Frederick.

8) Zach Davies – RHP – Frederick Keys (High A)

Age: 20

Mid-Season Top 20 Rank: 12

July Numbers:

G	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
5	1	2	4.61	27.1	27	1	5	30	1.38	.262

The ERA isn’t pretty but Davies worked another solid month allowing a single home run and posting an impressive 30-to-5 K/BB ratio in 27 innings. The kid knows how to pitch. Fascinated to see how the AA test goes for him next year, considering his average arsenal.

9) Devin Jones – RHP – Bowie Baysox (AA)

Age: 22

Mid-Season Top 20 Rank: HM

July Numbers:

G	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
4	0	1	4.50	18	16	1	7	18	2.30	.239

Good rebound for Jones whose June numbers were an absolute dumpster fire. I especially like the impressive combination of groundouts and strikeouts. His sinking fastball-slider combo will translate well to a major league bullpen if he learns to more consistently command them as well as control his emotions better in pressure innings. Doubtful, he’ll stick as a starter.

10) Parker Bridwell – RHP – Delmarva Shorebirds (Low A)

Age: 21

Mid-Season Top 20 rank: 17

July Numbers:

G	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
6	2	2	4.22	32	27	4	20	29	1.56	.225

The walk totals are ugly but Bridwell continues to get good strikeout and opponent AVG numbers and…I couldn’t really find anyone else deserving of rounding out the top ten. (Note: Josh Hader would have made this list BUT he was traded…sad face)

The Not Sheet

Eduardo Rodriguez – LHP – Struggled with control in his first four starts at Bowie, surrendering 15 walks, 4 home runs, in 26.2 innings pitched.

Kevin Gausman – RHP – AAA – 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in 11.2 innings pitched in July.

Eddie Gamboa – RHP – AAA – Serious control issues with the knuckler lately; 7.58 ERA in four AAA starts.

Glynn Davis – CF – Hit just .224 in July; continues to show little power production

Other Notes

Ironbirds Pitcher of the Month: Steven Brault – LHP

July Numbers:

G	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	GO/AO	AVG
5	0	1	0.56	16	12	0	1	15	1.50	.214

Brault has been awesome for the I-birds. I could see him pitching his way into a left handed relief role in the majors one day. Not a bad find at all in the 11th round.

Ironbirds Hitter of the Month: Mike Yastrzemski – OF

July Numbers:

G	AVG	AB	H	HR	RBI	2B	3B	BB	S0	OBP	SLG	OPS
26	.344	90	31	2	12	8	2	12	17	.438	.544	.983

Not to take away from the great numbers but Yaz is clearly too advanced for the NY-Penn league with his four years of playing experience in the SEC. We’ll see how he does at more appropriate levels of competition for his polished game before calling him a legitimate prospect.

Lighting it up in the GCL: Chance Sisco – C – It’s a 50 at bat sample but 2013 2nd rounder has showed great feel for hitting with the bat with a .388 AVG while drawing a very positive 10-to-8 K/BB ratio. Will be watching him closely at Delmarva next year (assuming he makes that jump).

Back From the Dead DL – Jonathan Schoop – 2B – The Orioles top hitting prospect has returned to AAA where he has already hit four bombs in his first seven games back. “Stay healthy and we’ll see you in Baltimore in September.” – Sincerely, me.

Promotion Alert: Christian Walker – 1B – Mr. Gamecock got the call up to AA after the Future’s Game and has hit a modest .242 in his first 62 at bats with five doubles. I’m expecting him to pick things up in August as he makes adjustments.

Remember Me? Oliver Drake – RHP – Finally healthy again, the 26 year old has taken to his closer role at Bowie very well, pitching to a 1.64 ERA in 22 innings with 27 strikeouts. If left unprotected, I could see him being a hot target in the Rule V Draft this Winter. His 91-94 MPH sinker and slider combo is intriguing.

Bud Norris Trade Analysis

Let’s start out the analytics process with a look at the big picture. The Orioles as of July 31, 2013 are 59-49 and in the thick of the playoff hunt. They still have a fair chance at catching the Rays and/or Red Sox and if that plan fails, they are in good shape to contend for one of the wild card spots all the way down to the wire. After many years of uncompetitive baseball in Baltimore, the Orioles organization isn’t about to let last year’s long overdue taste of success pass flash in the pan. They have their focus set on winning now and getting back to the postseason. With that in mind, its understandable the Dan Duquette has been one of the more aggressive GM’s this month of July. After picking up Scott Feldman and Francisco Rodriguez previously, he pulled the trigger on a deal for Bud Norris too in an effort to augment a rotation that has struggled to get consistent quality starts beyond Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman, and for the most part, Miguel Gonzalez.

Getting to Know Bud Norris

• Full Name: David Stefan Norris (Bud = Nickname)
• Born: March 2, 1985 in Greenbrae, CA
• Age: 28
• Height: 6′ 0”
• Weight: 220
• Bats: Right
• Throws: Right
• College: Cal Poly San Luis Obispo
• Drafted: 6th Round, 2006
• MLB Debut: July 29, 2009
• Signed Through: 2015

Scouting Report (Based on my stat and video analysis)

Fastball: 55 – 91-94 MPH; Not much movement; Effective when spotted down in the zone; average command of pitch

Slider: 65 – 84-86 MPH; Good late break; Swing-and-miss offering; mediocre command of pitch; gets away with mediocre command due to plus break on pitch

Changeup: 40 – 84 – 86 MPH; Little depth or fade; Below average pitch; lacks ideal velocity separation from fastball

Command: 55 – Solid-Average overall; At his best he locates his fastball on the low corners well and sets up his above average slider for the strikeout pitch; Has little feel for changeup and occasionally has lapses in fastball command causing the pitch to flatten out up in the zone.

Control: 50 – Average control; Above average strike throwing ability against right handed batters whom his above average fastball-slider combo plays more effectively against. Average to Below Average with lefties who have an easier time laying off the slider, resulting in fewer swinging strikes, and a tendency to try to nibble with them due to a below average changeup that will get hit hard if he leaves it over the plate.

Sidenote: Not sure if Norris has tinkered around with a cutter or not but I think a hard upper 80’s cutter could help neutralize his sharp platoon split. I noticed that back in 2010 when he threw his slider more in the 86-88 MPH range, he had more success getting left handed batters out. Easier said than done as he would have to be able to command the cutter with good bite in a consistent velocity range and that is difficult to hone overnight.

What The Orioles Gave Up

Josh Hader, LHP – Sad to see the local boy done good story leave town. The reality is though that he is still far away from the majors and with a crossfire delivery and current control inconsistencies, may profile better as a lefty reliever anyway. If that’s what he becomes, we may feel bad that he didn’t make it up with his hometown team, but this is a business, that’s who the Astros wanted, and a potential lefty reliever isn’t something to lose sleep over. Now, if Hader continues to grow into his lanky frame, improves his durability as a starter, sharpens his command and quality of his secondary pitches, and reaches his mid-rotation upside, we probably will regret including him the deal. Ultimately, he wouldn’t have been a factor in the Orioles plans, who are in “win-now” mode, until at least 2016, so it’s a gamble Dan Duquette is willing to make.

L.J. Hoes – LF – I just did a big “Welcome To The Show” profile on Mr. Hoes the other day, and now he’s gone. I speculated in my profile that part of the reasoning behind bringing Hoes up could have been marketing him in front of major league scouts for a potential deadline trade. Right I was, as the Orioles shipped (and by shipped I mean made him walk across the field) Hoes off to the visiting Astros where he will become an immediate starter in the outfield. Hoes deserves this opportunity and I’m actually somewhat glad to see him go. He has nothing left to prove in the minors and wasn’t a factor in a crowded Orioles outfield picture. He’ll get regular time in Houston and if he ever develops a little more in game pop, he’ll become a solid everyday starter and an ideal two hole hitter with his ability to post high walk totals and make consistent contact.

Competitive Balance Pick – I’m going to miss having this pick which is #32 overall, especially if the rumors that next year’s draft will be loaded are true. That being said, the draft is a crapshoot and this pick is a luxury the Orioles can afford to give the Astros.

Overall Thoughts

I get the reasoning behind the trade. The Orioles want to bolster the rotation for the stretch run without having to surrender premium prospects which they accomplished. But, is Bud Norris a guy they can count on to get the job done against the better lineups the Orioles will need to beat down the stretch and possibly in the playoffs. I’m not so sure. He strikes me as another Scott Feldman type. Both profile as solid No.4/ No.5 starters in a first division rotation; the kind of pitchers that are mostly dependable to give the team at least 6 innings each time out, will hold the weaker team’s lineups to 3 ER or less, but can be overmatched against the better team’s lineups and will get tagged for 4-6 runs IF they don’t bring their A game. Basically, what I’m getting at is I’m skeptical about whether Norris will much of a difference maker for the Orioles, especially against their AL East rivals.

Here’s Why:

On the season, left handed batters have hit Norris to the tune of .300/.365/.494 with 10 Home Runs allowed in 277 at bats. Basically, lefty batters have combined to hit like Manny Machado against Norris. Right handed batters have combined to hit .240/.305/.315 against him in 220 at bats. It’s no secret, the below average changeup is the main factor behind this split.

Norris also has a pronounced home/road split, pitching to a 2.92 ERA at Minute Maid Park in Houston and a 5.91 ERA everywhere else.

The pronounced home/road split also applies to his ability to get lefty batters out. Against 95 total lefty batters faced on the road, Norris has been hit to the tune of .356/.411/.659. That’s Miguel Cabrera esque.

I’m worried about how those below average numbers will translate to a ballpark like Camden Yards with a short right field porch tailor made for left handed power hitters.

I could be overblowing all of this statistical nonsense and he may end up working around his splits in his new home setting. After all, he absolutely seemed more comfortable pitching at the Astros home field. Perhaps, Bud Norris has a thing for pitching in front of the home crowd, regardless of the team he plays for. We’ll see. There’s really no way of telling how the home/road splits translate from one team to the next.

On a more positive note, another factor that can’t be overlooked is the stellar Orioles defense that will now play behind Norris. The Astros were on the lower end of the spectrum defensively so moving up to the Orioles defense could certainly help him overcome, or at least better hide his weaknesses. A stronger defense could help mitigate big scoring innings from happening by preventing fewer runners on base if/when Norris does struggle with the extra base hits allowed to left handed batters.

Ultimately, I’m expecting Norris to pitch around a 4.00 ERA and give the Orioles a winning chance in most of his outings. However, I’m still not sold this is a guy that can be counted on against the better hitting lineups versus right handed pitching like the Red Sox (1), Tigers (3), and Athletics (4), all teams the Orioles may need to count on him against in a big game down the stretch or possibly the playoffs.

Was this a fair trade?

Yes, in terms of value subtracted versus value added, I think Orioles did well giving up two B-level prospects and a Comp B pick for a decent No.4 starter who is under team control through 2015. However, getting back to the original points I made in the introduction to this post about the Orioles focus on getting to the postseason, I’m not sure Norris is someone the Orioles needed to pursue. He has a reliever’s two pitch arsenal and may not be able to hold his own as a starter at Camden Yards the same way he did in Houston. I’m okay with this trade but not in love with it. In a perfect world, I think the Orioles would have been better served to combine the players/prospects involved in the Feldman, K-Rod, and Norris trades into one mega package for a Matt Garza or Jake Peavy. I’ll never know if that was ever a realistic scenario, but a frontline starter is what this team needs to get past their contending rivals in the American League.