Player Profile: Wesley Wright – LHP

Here’s an overview of the Orioles latest bullpen addition. To discuss this post, please visit this forum link at OriolesHangout.com

Full Name: Dequam LaWesley Wright

DOB: 1/28/85 Age: 29

Hometown: Montgomery, AL

Bats/Throws: R/L

Drafted: 7th Round, 2003

High School: Goshen HS (AL)

Height: 5’10″ Weight: 185

Background: The Orioles signed Wesley Wright to a 1-year, $1.7 MM deal on Dec. 19, that includes a $50 K performance bonus if he appears in 60 games. A seven-year veteran now, Wright has found his groove the over the past four seasons, carrying a 3.25 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 123 ERA+, 8.5 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 in 166.1 innings pitched. Wright was originally selected in the 7th round out of high school by the Dodgers, pitching mostly as a reliever in their farm system. He’s a rule five success story, having spent his entire rookie season in the Astros bullpen in 2008 after they selected him from the Dodgers farm system.

Strengths: Wright does an above average job with retiring left handed batters and should be a reliable LOOGY in the Orioles bullpen. Over his career, he has struck lefties out at a 26.6% clip along with an outstanding K/9 of 10.24. Lefties have posted a career slash line of .234/.315/.331 which may not be Andrew Miller-esque (sorry) but definitely enough to cut the mustard at the major league level. Fun Fact: Wright did not allow a single extra base hit to lefties last year in 85 plate appearances!

Wright works with a low-90’s two seamer that he loves to puns the bottom half of the zone with. He has averaged an excellent 52.6% groundball rate over his last four years, making him a good fit for Camden Yards. His best pitch is a his plus 83-85 MPH slider that sweeps and slightly changes planes late that he uses as his out pitch. He’ll also work in an upper 70’s sweeping curveball and a mid-80’s changeup. Wright keeps his delivery simple, pitching from stretch with a high 3/4 arm slot. He repeats his mechanics well and has been durable throughout his career, pitching at least 48.1 innings of relief work every season since 2006.

Weaknesses: Wright has a tendency to nibble which can lead to control problems, particularly against right handed batters. He has walked 4.62 batters per 9 innings when facing righties in his career as opposed to a 3.20 BB/9 versus lefties. His career K/9 also dips down to 7.40 versus righties. Despite favorable groundball rates, right handed batters haven’t had too much difficulty squaring up Wright. He has allowed 30 home runs and a .479 slugging percentage to right handed batters in his career. In roughly the same amount of innings pitched to lefties, he’s allowed just 7 home runs and a .331 SLG percentage.

His changeup lacks ideal velocity separation, coming in roughly 5-7 MPH slower than his fastball. Command of the pitch is also erratic but he’ll occasionally flash a plus one with late arm side fade to finish off a batter. Improvement in consistency and quality of this pitch could make him more effective versus righties. His sweeper curveball can get a bit loopy at times but is a decent change-of-pace pitch when spotted low in the zone. After posting K/9’s above 9 the previous two seasons, Wright’s K/9 plummeted to 6.89 in 2014. He remained effective, but still worth mentioning.

Overall Outlook: Wright is a solid average big league reliever. His mediocre control has me hesitant to call him a viable late innings option, but he looks like a reliable LOOGY for middle innings work with – as it stands now – Brian Matusz likely being to go-to guy for a tough lefty later in the game. With Matusz projected for a $2.4 million raise, speculation has emerged that Wright could be a slightly cheaper replacement that allows the Orioles to market Matusz as a trade chip for another outfielder. We shall see if that is the case. Wright is set to hit free agency after the 2015 season. Ultimately, I expect he’ll post his usual solid but unspectacular low-3’s ERA with some upside to be more than that on the off chance he cuts his walk rate way down, given his strikeout stuff.

(Special thanks to the Baltimore Sun, Fangraphs, video footage from MLB.com, and MLB Scouting Reports, for valuable info in putting this together)

Orioles Sign…Brian Gonzalez – LHP

	Born: 10/25/1995	Age: 18
	Height: 6’3″	Weight: 230 lbs
	Bats/Throws: R/L	HS: Archbishop McCarthy (FL)
	Drafted: 3rd Round, 2014	Signing Bonus: $700,000
	And with the first pick of the 2014 draft the Orioles drafted a first baseman who moonlights as a pitcher. Joking aside, it was a bit strange to see the O’s draft someone listed as a first baseman by Baseball America. But, I trust the eyes of our scouts over a well-informed, well-intentioned but not necessarily accurate magazine and with good reason. Gonzalez is a burly high school lefty with an advanced feel for pitching and a quality changeup. He signed rather quickly and is ready to show us what he can do in the GCL this Summer.

Scouting Report

Primer: (20 = Terrible, 30 = Well Below Average, 40 = Mediocre, 45 = Slightly Below Average, 50 = Major League Average, 55 = Flashes Above Average, 60 = Above Average, 65 = Flashes Plus, 70 = Plus, 80 = Plus-Plus/Elite)

• Fastball: 40/50 – Not much projection in terms of velocity; sits upper 80’s, topping out in low 90’s with average life; A potential average MLB fastball
• Slider: 35/55 – Mediocre offering by pro standards at the moment but throws it for strikes and could develop into average offering with time.
• Changeup: 45/65 – Mid 70’s; Shows good feel for spotting the pitch and it flashes good depth and fade; a potential plus offering with continued refinement.
• Command: 45/65 – Advanced feel for pitches leads me to think he can develop above average, possibly plus command.
• Control: 50/70 – Controls the strike zone well with his three pitches; Should post above average walk per nine rates as he develops his craft.

Overall outlook: Gonzalez looks like a solid value to me for the Orioles in the 3rd round. He’s actually quite polished as far as high school pitchers go and should be ready to make the jump right into full season ball with Delmarva next year. For now, he will pitch in the GCL this Summer although I wouldn’t rule out a few appearances with the Ironbirds too. I like that he has an advanced changeup, a starter’s build, and good command. We’ll see how whether his breaking ball develops and whether he adds a tick or two to his fastball. Gonzalez may see more scrutiny than the typical 3rd round pick due to his status as the Orioles first pick of the draft. Those expecting him to develop into a blue chip prospect may be disappointed. However, Gonzalez is still a solid prospect who likely rates among the top 20 in the system and projects as a workhorse number four starter if everything breaks right.

 

Here is an audio interview courtesy of Brett Hollander with Gonzalez. Gonzalez mentions working on “leaning out” and building muscle onto his burly frame as something he wants to work on. He also describes himself as a “command guy” who likes to spot up with his fastball and mentions Cole Hamels and Johan Santana as pitchers he’d like to emulate. Good answers.

Prospect Comparison: This comparison may not be much help unless you are familiar with Reds prospects but David Holmberg is the one name that keeps popping into my head as a similar pitcher. Holmberg was drafted in the 2nd round out of high school and like Gonzalez is a 6’2, 225 pound lefty with advanced command of an average fastball and above average changeup. He made his MLB debut last year with the Diamondbacks and still projects as a back of the rotation starter.

Statistics (Archbishop McCarthy HS) – Fun Fact: Gonzalez threw back-to-back no hitters this season. Kid knows how to pitch.

Year	Age	Class	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	K	AVG	WHIP	BB/9	K/9
2014	18	Senior	0.50	17	10	69.1	—	—-	—-	129	——	——–	——-	—–

 

Minorioles April HOTSHEET

(To discuss this post, follow this link to OriolesHangout.com where I have a forum thread created)

Welcome back to our first HOTSHEET of the 2014 season. I’m a college student. That means I’ve been swamped with homework assignments, tests, research papers, and final exams for the last month or so. I also met Alshon Jeffery at a bar in Columbia, South Carolina. Interesting April I had.

But, It’s all over. I’ve been set free from my cage to rage and I intend to.

I also now have time to amp up my much needed minor league coverage and start cranking out Orioles HOTSHEET reports, 2014 draft previews on high school and college prospects, and oh yeah, finally get my belated Orioles Top 20 prospect profiles written up. I also wanted to get up a Top 100 list for the entire minors too (like I did last year) and while delayed, I still won’t deny it.

Now, that I’ve informed my ten readers of what’s going down on this site in the near future, let me finish by saying that everything that shows up on here, ends up on OriolesHangout.com too. Therefore, you should become familiar with that website if you haven’t already. I’m kinda the Senior Content Manager over there now.

And I’m not even a Senior in college.

Yet.

On with the HOTSHEET…

Hold up, this is the first HOTSHEET of the year, so let me run down what a HOTSHEET is…

1st Rule of HOTSHEET’S: Always capitalize HOTSHEET

2nd Rule: Don’t forget Rule 1

3rd Rule: I only include those from the Orioles minor leagues whom I consider legitimate major league prospects. So if some 30-year old journeyman is hitting .350 in AA, that’s great and all. But, he’s still in AA for a reason and will not be gracing us with his presence on the HOTSHEET.

What is a HOTSHEET you ask? It is a top ten list of all the hottest hitters and pitchers from the Orioles minor leagues.

Let me rephrase that. It is a top ten list which Oriole hitters and pitchers have been performing the best lately.

What about the worst? We have a thing for those guys too. It’s called the Not Sheet.

Notice how I un-capitalized that. I mention those guys at the end of the column in a very disparaging manner. Not really, I like to be optimistic about all the Orioles farmhands, event he strugglers.

Okay, without further ado, here’s the HOTSHEET for the month of April…

1) Dariel Alvarez – OF – Bowie Baysox (AA)

Age: 25

Top 20 Rank: 11

April Numbers:

G	AVG	AB	H	HR	RBI	2B	3B	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
27	.366	112	41	5	25	11	0	2	8	.379	.598	.978

Alvarez appears to be the latest Cuban sensation to hit the Orioles minor leagues. He’s off to a sensational start at AA with the only knock I can think of is his the low walk rate. But he’s stroking the ball and has struck out in just 6.8% of his plate appearances, which is kind of amazing. He will likely be promoted to Norfolk midway through the year if this level of production continues.

2) Christian Walker – 1B – Bowie Baysox (AA)

Age: 23

Top 20 rank: 16

April Numbers:

G	AVG	AB	H	HR	RBI	2B	3B	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
29	.325	120	39	6	24	3	1	8	26	.364	.517	.881

Christian Walker has been lighting it up down at AA which he’ll need to continue as a bat first prospect that’s limited to first base defensively. Despite the strikeout percentage jump, I’m glad to see my favorite Gamecock prospect showing more home run pop this season as well.

3) Hunter Harvey – RHP – Delmarva Shorebirds (Low A)

Age: 19

Top 20 rank: 3

April Numbers:

GS	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	AVG	GB%	FIP
5	1	1	2.08	26	14	1	13	29	.163	48.3%	3.43

Command issues for the talented young stud have arose at times but its clear that his premium fastball-curveball combo have been #ToMuchToHandle for the majority of the Sally league hitters he has faced, evidenced by his opponent batting average and strikeout rate.

4) Steven Brault – LHP – Delmarva Shorebirds (Low A)

Age: 22

Top 20 Rank: 17

April Numbers:

GS	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	AVG	GB%	FIP
5	2	2	3.21	28	25	0	8	26	.240	38.8%	2.31

He can sing the national anthem and pitch in the same game. That’s called efficiency. Brault entered the year as a sleeper among Oriole prospect die-hards and the early returns look very promising at Delmarva. He’s a touch old for the level though, so I’d imagine he’ll get bumped up to the Keys relatively soon if he continues to pitch effectively.

5) Glynn Davis – CF – Frederick Keys (High A)

Age: 23

Top 20 Rank: HM

April Numbers:

G	AVG	AB	H	HR	RBI	2B	3B	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS
25	.365	104	35	0	14	6	2	9	25	.421	.462	.883

Davis has been lighting it up down at Frederick and while the lack of power numbers still sticks out, he has shown a much more comfortable approach at the plate and has been making consistent line drive contact. Always good to see the Maryland native’s doing well.

6) Tyler Wilson – RHP – Bowie Baysox (AA)

Age: 23

Top 20 Rank: 20

April Numbers:

GS	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	AVG	GB%	FIP
6	4	1	3.42	34.2	40	3	6	42	.278	49.5%	2.42

The crafty righthander is off to a great start at Bowie and currently leads the Orioles farmhands in strikeouts. His improved groundball rate sticks out to me as well which suggests that he is commanding the lower half of the strike zone supremely well.

7) Branden Kline – RHP – Frederick Keys (High A)

Age: 22

Top 20 Rank: HM

April Numbers:

GS	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	AVG	GB%	FIP
6	2	1	2.36	34.1	30	1	9	24	.278	44.8%	2.97

Branden Kline off to an encouraging start with the Keys after his season was cut short in 2013 due to an ankle injury.

8) Mike Wright – AAA – (Norfolk Tides)

Age: 23

Top 20 Rank: 8

April Numbers:

GS	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	AVG	GB%	FIP
5	0	0	2.86	28.1	28	1	8	22	.259	42.5%	3.16

Wright is quietly putting up solid outings at Norfolk and is just a phone call away from Baltimore now at AAA.

9) Sebastian Vader – RHP – Delmarva Shorebirds (Low A)

Age: 21

Top 20 Rank: HM

April Numbers:

GS	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	AVG	GB%	FIP
5	3	1	3.06	32.1	28	3	5	26	.228	49%	3.26

“Darth” Vader makes his debut appearance on the HOTSHEET. The early returns from his full season debut look promising, suggesting that the projectable right hander may have seen a bump in stuff since last season. I’ve yet to see him in person so I can’t confirm that speculation.

10) Kevin Gausman – RHP – Norfolk Tides (AAA)

Age: 23

Top 20 Rank: 1

April Numbers:

GS	W	L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K	AVG	GB%	FIP
5	0	1	2.86	21.1	21	1	11	20	.266	48.4%	3.48

Will we be seeing KG in Baltimore soon? The answer is no for now. He’s on the minor league DL due to pneumonia but should be ready to go sometime in next few weeks. He’s been solid, but not exactly dominant either, so there’s no reason to rush him back up to Baltimore just because a segment of the fanbase has it in for Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, and/or Bud Norris.

The Not Sheet…Uh Oh…

Henry Urrutia – RF – AAA – .220/.250/.293 in 82 at bats – One of the more discouraging stories of the minor league season is Big Hank’s early season struggles at Norfolk. Fresh off winning Orioles minor league hitter of the year, Hank had held high expectations coming into the 2014 season, especially with his 25 pound weight addition in the offseason that hoped to spawn more power production. He has yet to homer, and carries an ugly 4-to-23 BB/K ratio in 82 at bats. AND, he’s now on the DL with an abdominal strain.

Suk-Min Yoon – RHP – AAA – 0-4, 7.96 ERA, .397 AVG – I think Yoon takes the crown for the most discouraging story so far on the minor league front. The Taiwanese import, signed to a three year deal in the offseason, held somewhat high expectations coming to Baltimore. His stay down at Norfolk was supposed to be a “tune-up” as he acclimated to American baseball, but has instead been a series of disastrous stinkbomb outings that will prevent him from pitching in an Orioles uniform anytime soon.

Eduardo Rodriguez – LHP – AA – E-Rod, the Orioles No. 5 prospect according to me, is currently on the DL with a sprained knee. However, prior to the DL landing, he wasn’t exactly dominating, showing inconsistent command of his arsenal while pitching to a 6.75 ERA in three starts.

Michael Ohlman – C – AA – .169/.288/.202 in 89 at bats – Ohlman had a huge breakout year at Frederick in 2013 which catapulted him into the top ten Oriole prospects by most evaluators. His adjustment to AA has been rough so far, which isn’t what we like to see from a prospect whose value is mostly tied in with his bat, considering his questionable defensive skills at catcher.

Parker Bridwell – RHP – A+ – 0-4, 6.60 ERA, .308 AVG – Bridwell has a good fastball and a “loose arm” but continues to show little feel for pitch command. I still think his ultimate destination is the bullpen if he’s to make it to the majors.

Chance Sisco – C – A – .245/.302/.306 in 49 at bats – Sisco, not to be confused with Sisqo, is off to a sluggish start with the Shorebirds and has struck out 17 times already in 49 at bats. He’s currently on the DL.

Conor Bierfeldt – RF – A – .149/.288/.253 in 87 at bats – Bierfeldt has been whiffing at everything under the sun lately and is looking more like an organizational slugger than a legitimate prospect, but I’ll give him more time before completely writing him off.

Becoming A Prospect?

Garabez Rosa – UTL – Bowie Baysox (AA)

Steve Melewski had a great writeup yesterday on Rosa that’s worth a read. He’s been around seemingly forever in the Orioles minor leagues but is still just 24 years old. He’s never hit for a high average and has always had extremely questionable plate discipline…until now? He stroked the ball throughout April (.356/.374/.517, 2 HR) and could be on his way to a breakout season that puts him on the prospect radar as a potential utility infielder in the majors.

Jimmy Yacabonis – RHP – Delmarva Shorebirds (A)

Yacabonis has been shoving down in Delmarva as the Shorebird closer and didn’t allow a single earned run in the month of April. He throws a 91-94 MPH fastball with great life and mixes in a decent slider too. He could move quickly up the ladder if he continues to dominate.

Dylan Bundy Update:

The Orioles top prospect (depending on who you ask) is still on the mend from TJ surgery but is throwing off the mound and should start pitching in extended Spring Training games by Mid-may according to Roch Kubatko.

Johan Santana Update:

The most recent reports on Santana are that he his velocity continues to inch up and that he touched 87 MPH recently. He is expected to start throwing in extended Spring Training games this upcoming week according to Eduardo Encina.

 

Minor League Rotations Anounced

The Orioles minor league affiliates announced their starting rotations today, with the exception of Delmarva, who only announced their first three. The 4th and 5th spots in the Shorebirds rotation are still TBD.

Norfolk Tides

1. Kevin Gausman – RHP, Age: 23 (OH Prospect Rank: 2)
2. Steve Johnson – RHP, Age: 26
3. T.J. McFarland – LHP, Age: 24
4. Suk-Min Yoon – RHP, Age: 27
5. Mike Wright – RHP, Age: 24 (OH Prospect Rank: 8)

Eddie Gamboa and Nick Additon will also likely see some time in the Norfolk rotation as the season progresses.

Bowie Baysox

1. Eduardo Rodriguez – LHP, Age: 21 (OH Prospect Rank: 4)
2. Tyler Wilson – RHP, Age: 24 (OH Prospect Rank: 27)
3. Tim Berry – LHP, Age: 23 (OH Prospect Rank: 12)
4. Zach Davies – RHP, Age: 21 (OH Prospect Rank: 7)
5. Jake Pettit – LHP, Age: 27

Frederick Keys

1. Branden Kline – RHP, Age: 23 (OH Prospect Rank: 24)
2. Parker Bridwell – RHP, Age: 22 (OH Prospect Rank: 15)
3. Matt Taylor – LHP, Age: 23
4. Joe Van Meter – RHP, Age: 25
5. Brady Wager – RHP, Age: 23

Delmarva Shorebirds

1. Steven Brault – LHP, Age: 22 (OH Prospect Rank: 17)
2. Hunter Harvey – RHP, Age: 19 (OH Prospect Rank: 3)
3. Mitch Horacek – LHP, Age: 22
4. TBD
5. TBD

Austin Urban, Sebastian Vader, Bennett Parry, Luc Rennie, and Jon Keller could all be possible candidates to start after those three.

Getting To Know: Steve Lombardozzi

Player Profile: Steve Lombardozzi

DOB: 9/20/88      Age: 25

Birthplace: Fulton, MD

College: St. Petersburg College (FL)

Drafted: 19th round, 2008 by Washington Nationals

Height: 6’0″ Weight: 200

Background: The Orioles acquired Steve Lombardozzi from the Tigers on Mar. 24 in exchange for veteran INF Alex Gonzalez, which shocked us all that an a 37 year old has-been on a minor league deal could fetch anything worthwhile in a trade. He’s a switch hitter and second baseman by trade but can also play all three other infield positions along and has seen time in the outfield too. Lombardozzi grew up in Howard County and played high school ball at Atholton, a field I have played at myself in recent years. Irrelevant. He’s a junior, son of former big leaguer (and WS champion with the ’87 Twins) Steve Lombardozzi, but has enough syllables in his last name to avoid using a “Jr.” at the end. The Nationals drafted him in the 19th round out of St. Petersburg College in 2008.

Lombardozzi quickly established himself as a solid mid-level prospect in the Nats minors, batting .296/.375/.395 with 16 stolen bases at Low-A Hagerstown in 2009. He won Nationals minor league player of the year in 2011 after batting .309/.360/.430 with 8 home runs, 9 triples, 25 doubles, 30 stolen bases, and just 78 strikeouts in 553 at bats. At age 23, he cracked the Nats opening day roster in 2012 as he utility man and  had a solid rookie year in the role, batting .273/.317/.354 with 3 home runs an just 46 strikeouts in 384 at bats. His production waned to replacement level player status in the first half of 2013 (.234/.246/.294 in 184 at bats) but he picked things up dramatically (.302/.333/.415 in 102 at bats) in the second half.

The Good: Lombardozzi has a simple setup at the plate with minimal weight transfer and an aggressive contact oriented approach. He does a great job of putting the ball in play consistently and has struck out in just 11.1 % of plate appearances at the MLB level. His natural running speed is average but plays up on the basepaths due to aggressive and skilled baserunning. Steve has often been described as an excellent fundamental defender that is very “headsy” in the field and will make all the routine plays and throws expected of him at second and third. He can handle short in a pinch but lacks the range and arm strength to be considered more than a fringe-average defender there. In 2010, while playing in the Arizona Fall League, he won the Stenson Award, given yearly “to the player who best exemplifies unselfishness, hard work and leadership.” Sounds like a “Buck-type” of player to me.

The Bad: Lombardozzi is perhaps too aggressive at the plate, often trying to jump on the first pitch thrown. So while he doesn’t strike out a ton, that doesn’t mean he’s making quality contact with regualrity, which is probably why he only hit a pedestrian .259 for the Nats in 2013. He could stand to draw a few more walks, looking at his below average career walk rate of 3.7% and career OBP of just .297. He’s also a below average power hitter, utilizing a swing geared for hitting line drive singles with the occasional double in the gap. He had double digit steal numbers every full season in the minors but has just 9 stolen bases out of 15 attempts in the majors.

Overall Outlook: Lombardozzi had a down year for the Nats in 2013 but I think there’s still some modest upside here considering his high baseball IQ. He’s just 25 and he put up the kind of numbers in his 2011 season at AA/AAA that suggested he could develop into a lower tier regular at second base with a floor as a UTL guy. He needs to improve upon that grotesque 2.6% walk rate in 2013. He has actually lowered his K% at the MLB level from what it was in the minors so it’s possible that if he improves his selectivity at the plate, he could develop into a .280-.290 hitter. For now, Lombardozzi gives the O’s a young, cost-controlled player (set to make 500 K) who should serve them well in a bench role and can start in a pinch. Not a bad return at all for Alex Gonzalez.

(Thanks to Baseball America, Prospect Instinct, Milb.com, Mlb.com, Federal Baseball, and Fangraphs for valuable info in putting this together)

Spring Training Progress Report (3/17)

An update on how the team is performing statistically along with insight into the current roster battle situations:

Rotation Picture

See you on opening day, Mr. Tillman

– Opening Day Starter: Chris Tillman (Spring Stats: 4.97 ERA, 12.2 IP, 14 H, 7  ER, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K’s)

– No. 2 Starter: Ubaldo Jimenez (Spring Stats: 9.00 ERA, 4 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K’s)

Last time I speculated that Jimenez would be the favorite because he was the big bucks free agent. Don’t trust my amateur hack speculation. Buck Showalter announced this afternoon that he will defer to incumbent Chris Tillman for the opening day nod. Tillman became the first Orioles starter in his last start to throw 5+ innings so we’re at a point in the Spring where the rest of the projected rotation should start to see a bump in innings pitched as well.

Ubaldo has one outstanding and one dreadful two-inning appearances on the Spring. That’s the kind of inconsistency we hope not to see in the regular season. His velocity was up to 92-93 mph in today’s minor league outing outing versus the AAA Twins lineup.

No. 3 Starter

– Wei-Yin Chen (Spring Stats: 3.00 ERA, 9 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K’s)
 

– Miguel Gonzalez (Spring Stats: 3.86 ERA, 9.1 IP, 14 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K’s)

This isn’t really a competition in the grand scheme of things. Both Gonzo and Chen are assured rotation spots and it doesn’t matter all that much which one is slotted third or fourth. That being said, I’m curious which one of these two will get the nod in Game 3 of the opening series versus the Red Sox. I’m still thinking Chen. He’s looked sharp this Spring with no issues arising from his offseason knee surgery.

No. 5 Starter

– Favorite: Bud Norris (Spring Stats: 2.70 ERA, 6.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K’s)

As expected from day one, nothing seems to indicate otherwise that Bud Norris is in any danger of not winning the 5th’s starters job. There was some speculation at the beginning of camp that he could be a trade candidate but the rumor mill has been quiet on that front in recent weeks.

Other Starters:

– Zach Britton (Spring Stats: 1.13 ERA, 8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K’s)

– Kevin Gausman (Spring Stats: 2.57 ERA, 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K’s)

– Brian Matusz (Spring Stats: 3.00 ERA, 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K’s)

– Steve Johnson (Spring Stats: 2.57 ERA, 7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K’s)

– T.J. McFarland (Spring Stats: 4.05 ERA, 6.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 8 K’s)

Matusz is still working with the starters but he’s a near-lock to move back to the bullpen with Troy Patton suspended. I will say that the quality of his changeup looks improved in the small sample I’ve seen Matusz pitch. That’s the righty-neutralizing pitch he needs that could determine whether he can start again down the road.

Britton continues to impress to the point that I’m comfortable penciling him into a roster spot unless he’s traded. His stock is up in my book as he’s shown relatively sharp command of his sinker this Spring and has touched mid 90’s on several occasions in his last few outings.

Gausman is still a bit of a wild card. More than likely, he’ll start out at AAA as the first starter waiting in the wings when a need arises. But, he could force the Orioles hand if they’re sold the talented youngster is ready to take a big step forward. He’s having an impressive Spring but I highly doubt the O’s bring him North unless Bud Norris is about to be traded or moved to the bullpen and I’m not aware of it.

I fully expect Johnson to head to AAA as rotation depth but he IS still around at this juncture and could possibly be a serious candidate to break camp in a swingman type role for the O’s if Aceves gets cut. Ditto for McFarland.

Bullpen Situation

– Closer: Tommy Hunter (Spring Stats: 4.50 ERA, 4 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K’s)

Nothing indicates Hunter is in danger of not succeeding Jim Johnson as the Orioles closer.

– Set-Up: Darren O’Day (Spring Stats: 0.00 ERA, 4 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K)

Same deal with O’Day. However, if that new changeup he’s working on progresses nicely, O’Day could emerge as a closer candidate (but that’s pure speculation on my part).

Other Locks:

– Ryan Webb (Spring Stats: 4.50 ERA, 6 IP, 11 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K’s)

With above average mid 90’s sinker, Webb looks like he’ll be the groundball specialist and/or 7th inning go-to reliever for the O’s

– Brian Matusz (see above)

– Zach Britton (see above)

Final Two Bullpen Spots Competition:

– Josh Stinson (Spring Stats: 0.00 ERA, 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K’s)

– Kelvin De La Cruz (Spring Stats: 3.00 ERA, 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K)

– Alfredo Aceves (Spring Stats: 5.63 ERA, 8 IP, 11 H, 5 ER, 3 HR, 2 BB, 2 K’s)

– Evan Meek (Spring Stats: 0.00 ERA, 5 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K’s)

– Brad Brach (Spring Stats: 3.38 ERA, 5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2H , 1 BB, 7 K’s)

Stinson and De La Cruz lack minor league options but that doesn’t guarantee anything, especially with De La Cruz, who has never thrown an inning in the majors. Lack of control has always been a flaw with him and that continues to look like the case with four walks in six innings. He throws a hard fastball, flashes an outpitch curveball, and could probably be a serviceable LOOGY reliever. But, unless the O’s trade one of Britton or Matusz, my gut feeling is that he will be DFA’d.

Aceves has some rough looking numbers but I don’t read too much into Spring stats. Still, he’s fighting for a roster spot and will need to impress the next two weeks to earn it. Many seem to think the veteran, due to his versatility and major league experience in a variety of roles, has a great chance at claiming a bullpen spot, but it’s not a lock yet.

“Blessed are the” Meek has looked terrific in a perfect five inning sample, although that’s mostly come against minor leaguers. It’s certainly possible the former all-star setup man could pitch his way onto the team if he continues to impress.

Stinson pitched well in a September trial, touching the mid 90’s with his fastball and seemed to make a favorable impression on Buck. He continues to pitch well and looks like a favorite to claim one of those final two sots.

Brach has an option which really works against him but he’s has some major league success before, notably in 2012, and has been quietly having an impressive Spring according to a recent Buck quote.

(Note: The O’s are considering breaking camp with 13 pitchers, according to Roch Kubatko, which could open a 3rd spot up)

Backup Catcher

– Favorite: Steve Clevenger (Spring Stats: 12-for-22, .545 AVG, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB, 2 K, .600 OBP, .773 SLG)

– Others: Johnny Monell (Spring Stats: 5-for-18, .278 AVG, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K, .381OBP, .444 SLG)

Baltimore native Steve Clevenger still seems like the obvious choice to break camp as the team’s backup catcher. At the end of the day, it seems Buck prefers whichever of these two is stronger defensively and all reports indicate that Clevenger has the upper hand there. It also doesn’t hurt that Clevenger is leading the team with a .545 average. Monell, has shown some ability as a left handed power bat but his defense remains suspect, particularly his receiving skills. As of now, I think he and Caleb Joseph (who’s also still in camp) will be Norfolk’s primary catchers.

Second Base

– Favorite: Ryan Flaherty (Spring Stats: 9-for-31, .290 AVG, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB, 8 K, .361 OBP, .484 SLG)

Others:

– Jonathan Schoop (Spring Stats: 12-for-30, .400 AVG, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB, 9  K, .424 OBP, .633 SLG)

– Jemile Weeks (Spring Stats: 4-for-27 .143 AVG, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 5 BB, 6 K, .314 OBP, .185 SLG)

Flaherty has hit well this Spring and shown impressive defensive versatility according to Buck. He’ll assuredly make the team and should start at second base…Schoop, the Orioles top hitting prospect, has seen his stock rise dramatically this Spring and still has a fighter’s chance of winning the job. Ultimately, I think he will initially begin the season at AAA, but if his Spring performance is an indicator, he could be up as soon as May, if Flaherty doesn’t take the job and run with it.

Now, the above paragraph assumes Manny Machado will be ready to go on opening day. But, that may not be a reasonable assumption anymore if Machado’s knee examination, originally scheduled for 3/18, gets pushed back several days due to scar tissue inflammation he dealt with recently. If Manny hits the DL, there’s a good chance the O’s could roll with Flaherty (or Alex Gonzalez) as the starter at third and Schoop as the starter at second on opening day.

Weeks can fly and has usefulness as a pinch runner but his ability to backup shortstop is suspect. He lacks punch at the plate, showing a disciplined approach, but not really much else to me as a hitter and the Spring numbers back that up. I think he could split time at second base with Flaherty, but I don’t envision him winning the job outright. He has options, so he’s not a lock to make the team either.

Leadoff Hitter

– Nick Markakis (Spring Stats: 11-for-25, .440 AVG, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 BB, 2 K, .462 OBP, .680 SLG)

– David Lough (Spring Stats: 6-for-23, .263 AVG, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K, .320 OBP, .435 SLG)

Same thoughts as last time…At the beginning of the Spring, I would’ve called Markakis the odds-on favorite but I’m not so sure now. Lough has seen several starts in the leadoff spot this Spring and has performed very well showing a better than expected ability to work the count and steal bases. Markakis also has been crushing the ball this Spring, and with his offseason weight gains, may be more of a power hitter and run producer this season, making Lough the better fit to see the lion’s share of starts in the leadoff spot.

Final Two Bench Spots:

– Delmon Young – OF/DH (Spring Stats: 6-for-27, .222 AVG, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 BB, 3 K, .222 OBP, .296 SLG)

– Steve Pearce – OF/1B (Spring Stats: 9-for-36, .250 AVG, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 6 K, .289 OBP, .417 SLG)

– Nolan Reimold – OF/DH (Spring Stats: 6-for-24, .250 AVG, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 6 BB, 8 K, .400 OBP, .375 SLG)

– Francisco Peguero – OF (Spring Stats: 4-for-15, .267 AVG, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 BB, 2 K, .313 OBP, .400 SLG)

 

– Henry Urrutia – OF/DH (Spring Stats: 9-for-29, .310 AVG, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 6 K, .333 OBP, .517 SLG)

– Alex Gonzalez – INF (Spring Stats: 10-for-23, .435 AVG, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K, .458OBP, .739 SLG)

– Michael Almanzar – 3B/1B (Spring Stats: 6-for-28, .214 AVG, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K, .313 OBP, .429 SLG)

That’s one crowded picture, right? And it doesn’t look much clearer since last Monday…

This time last week I felt pretty good about Delmon Young‘s chances of making the team. But, he hasn’t done much performance wise to separate himself from the pack in the last week and there hasn’t been much recent press about him. His track record hitting against lefties speaks for itself so I’m not reading too much into his Spring numbers…But, its possible he could be beaten out by incumbent bench player Steve Pearce, a Buck favorite who offers a little more defensive versatility and a professional hitter’s approach at the plate as opposed to Delmon Young’s hackish ways.

Peguero is young, talented, and out of options. He’s easily the best defensive outfielder and baserunner of this group but has been sidelined for over a week now with a wrist issue. I’d say his stock of making the team is down from where it was a week ago and he may be a DL candidate.

Reimold is starting to get back into baseball shape and has slowly been picking up his performance with the bat. If he gets back to a level of play on par with where he was before his neck surgeries, he has a shot at making the team and possibly platooning with Lough in left field. That’s a big if.

Minor league options hurt Urrutia‘s case. He’s bigger and ready to hit for more power this year, although his early Spring performance looks similar to what he did last season.

Gonzalez is the wily 15-year vet who has hit well and can still play solid defense. He looks like a viable veteran backup option to have around if Manny hits DL…Finally, we have Almanzar, the Rule 5 pick who has flashed some hitting ability but is unrefined in his approach and a work in progress defensively. He’ll likely be offered back to the Red Sox.

Getting To Know Michael Almanzar

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Player Profile: Michael Almanzar – 3B

Height: 6’3″ Weight: 190

DOB: 12/02/90 Age: 23

Bats/Throws: R/R

Birthplace: Santo Domingo, D.R.

Signed: Non-Drafted FA, 2007 by Boston Red Sox

Signing Bonus: $1.5 MIL

Background: During the Winter Meetings, the Orioles selected third baseman Michael Almanzar of the Red Sox farm system during the MLB phase of the Rule V draft. As you may already know, that means he has to stay on the MLB roster for a full season or be offered back to the Red Sox for $25 K. The Red Sox can accept or decline. If they decline that offer, the Orioles keep Almanzar and can then option him to the minors.

Almanzar can best be described as a bonus baby gone awry. In 2007, the Sox gave the 16 year-old Almanzar a 1.5 MIL signing bonus, the most expensive international bonus handed out in that Summer, with the expectation that he would develop into a blue chip prospect. That, obviously hasn’t been the case or he wouldn’t have found himself available for selection in the Rule V draft.

Almanzar made his US debut with the GCL Red Sox in 2008, hitting well in a small sample, earning a late season taste of the SALLY league where he was overmatched. Almanzar would toil the next three years between Low-A and High-A ball, struggling to find consistency with his bat while developing less than favorable reviews with scouts about his work ethic and body language in games. After batting a repugnant .182/.223/.245 line in 220 at bats at High-A in 2011, Almanzar reversed the sinking ship in 2012, slashing .300/.353/.458 in 454 at bats with 33 walks and 77 strikeouts. Almanzar got his first taste of AA ball in 2013 as an age appropriate 22 year-old, holding his own but not dominating to the tune of a .268/.328/.428 line with 16 home runs, 42 walks and 100 strikeouts in 507 at bats.

The Good: Almanzar brings with him plus bat speed and above average power potential at the big league level. He currently wears out the gaps with doubles and in time could develop into a 20+ home run hitter over a full season’s worth of at bats. Almanzar has batted a much more respectable .283/.340/.444 line over his last two minor league seasons which is impressive progress for a young hitter who previously looked lost in his approach at the plate. A lanky 6’3″ 190, Almanzar still has some room on his frame to add an extra ten pounds of muscle.

Batting Video

The Bad: All reports I’ve come across suggest Almanzar doesn’t carry a good glove with him at third and may fit better as a first baseman or DH type at the major league level. That, of course will put the onus on his bat. His swing gets long at times and he tends to get beat on the inner half with premium velocity. His pitch recognition is also average at best. Progress has been slow for Almanzar and according to RotoScouting.com “questions about his work ethic and drive have soured many on Almanzar’s prospect status.” That report, of course, was from 2011 when Almanzar couldn’t hit a beach ball. While he’s made considerable progress recently, reports with unfavorable remarks like that, even if they are old, still raise doubt over whether Almanzar has the mental game to handle the grind of making the necessary adjustments to succeed at the big league level.

Overall Assessment: Potential Bench Bat

Two big questions surround Almanzar…Can the Orioles keep him, and can we expect continued improvement from Almanzar with the bat or will he stall in AAA? The current crop of competition for bench spots for the Orioles looks awfully crowded which makes Almanzar’s outlook of making the team look bleak. He will likely be offered back to the Red Sox and assuming the accept him back, this writeup will feel useless to me, but that’s irrelevant. I would argue, based on what I’ve researched, that his upside is similar to what Danny Valencia brought to the Orioles bench in 2013. He offers above average power production in spurts and should ultimately settle into a platoon DH role against left handed pitching eventually with the Orioles, Red Sox or whatever organization he winds up with.

(Thanks to Soxprospects.com, Minor League Central, RotoScouting.com, MLB.com, Baltimore Sun, and Fangraphs for valuable information in putting this together)

Getting To Know: Ryan Webb

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DOB: 2/05/86      Age: 27

Hometown: Clearwater, FL

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted: 4th Round, 2004 by Oakland athletics

HS: Clearwater Central Catholic (FL)

Height: 6’6″      Weight: 245

Contract: 2 YRS, $4.5 MIL

Options: None

Background: The Orioles signed Ryan Webb to a two-year major league contract on Dec. 6 worth $4.5 million. Son of former big leaguer right-hander Hank Webb, Ryan can best be described as a solid middle reliever who leans heavily on his two pitch combo of a mid 90’s sinker and low 80’s slider. The Athletics originally drafted Webb out of high school in 2004 and he quickly signed for a $250,000 bonus. He pitched in 20.1 innings with the rookie level AZL Athletics that Summer, showing promise with 23 strikeouts and just a single walk allowed.

Webb would spend the next three years toiling in A-ball as a starter with uneven results. 2008 marked his final year as a starting pitcher as he failed to impress the A’s brass in his first go round at AA, pitching to a 5.19 ERA with 165 hits allowed in 130 innings pitched. Then 23 years old, Webb found himself a home in the bullpen with the Athletics AAA affiliate in 2009 where he pitched to 4.31 ERA in 45.1 innings but with much better component ratios. The Padres took notice and acquired Webb in a deal that sent outfielder Scott Hairston to the A’s. Webb would make his major league debut that Summer on July 8, 2009 and pitched 25.2 innings in the majors that year, sporting a 3.86 ERA. Webb began the year at AAA in 2010, but once a spot opened up for Webb in the Padres bullpen, he ran with it, pitching to a 2.90 ERA in 59 innings.

The Padres included Webb along with Edward Mujica that offseason in a deal with the Marlins that brought them outfielder Cameron Maybin. Webb posted another solid season in 2011, with his performance plummeting in 2012 (albeit due to an inflated BABIP), before rebounding in 2013 with his strongest season yet. Webb pitched to a 2.91 ERA with the Marlins in 2013, reaching career highs with 66 appearances, 80.1 innings pitched and 54 strikeouts, along with a career low .231 opponent AVG.

The Marlins strangely decide to non-tender Webb after his best season, reportedly not wanting to pay him more than $1.5 million in arbitration. In other strange news, Grantland of all publications, was the first to report this signing. Why, Grantland? How on earth were they ahead the Orioles beat writers or Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports in reporting the signing of a non-tendered Marlins reliever? Random

The Good: Webb took a huge step forward in 2013, showing equal dominance versus both left and right handed batters (.238 AVG versus lefties; .226 AVG versus righties) after previously struggling to get lefties out. This fangraphs article explains how he altered his pitching approach to have more success with lefthanded batters. The slider is Webb’s out-pitch, a true swing and miss offering that opposing batters went just 17-for-102 (.167 AVG) with 36 strikeouts during the 2013 season.

Webb was particularly dominant after the all star break with his first half ERA dropping from 3.14 to 2.65 in the second half, opponent AVG dropping from .262 to .222, BB/9 rate dropping from 4.40 to 1.45, K/9 rate increasing from 5.44 to 6.75 – which once more begs the question – why did the Marlins non-tender this guy after such a strong finish?

Some have drawn up comparisons between former Orioles closer Jim Johnson and Ryan Webb. While the two throw different breaking balls, there is a similarity in the sinking mid 90’s fastball and above average groundball rates both post. Webb boasts an excellent career 57.4% groundball rate which is strikingly similar to Jim Johnson’s career 57.7% groundball rate.

The Bad: His command within the strikezone of his sinking fastball can get spotty at times. The pitch has also proven to be hittable as opponents have batted .309 against the sinker during his career. However, the pitch is largely responsible for Webb’s strong groundball rate and one could argue that less of those sinkers put in play will go for hits with the Orioles elite infield defense behind him. Webb has spent his entire career pitching in the NL, so it’s possible transitioning to pitching in the AL East could be a difficult adjustment.

Overall Assessment: Middle Reliever (with Late Inning Potential)

As of now, according to Roch Kubatko, “Webb still isn’t regarded as a candidate to close”, which means he will likely begin the year as the go-to 7th inning man and/or groundball specialist with runners on base. Considering he’s moving from one of the worst to one of the best infield defenses, one could make an argument that Webb will have a lower batting average on balls in play when batters make contact with his sinker. Provided he acclimates well to pitching in the AL East, Webb could very well pitch himself into a setup role with potential to close for the Orioles this season if Tommy Hunter (who I assume will close) falters. For now, Webb looks like he’ll be a consistently effective, occasionally dominant middle reliever for the Orioles and should post an ERA in the 2.80-to-3.20 range.

(Thanks to Orioles-Nation.com, Masnsports.com, Fangraphs, MLB.com, and Baltimore Sun for valuable info in putting this together)

Getting To Know Francisco Peguero

(This post can also be seen on the forum of OriolesHangout.com)

DOB: 6/01/88     Age: 25

Hometown: San Gregorio de Nigua, Dominican Republic

Signed: Aug. 8, 2005 by San Francisco Giants

Height: 6’0″ Weight: 190

Background: The Orioles signed Francisco Peguero to a one-year $550K deal on Dec. 7, five days after he was non-tendered by the Giants. He’s best described as your typical toolsy athletic outfielder in need of refinement. The Giants were previously the only organization he’d known, having signed with them as a 17 year-old in 2005. He made in Giants debut with their DSL team in 2006, playing their again in 2007. He made his shortseason debut in 2008 and broke onto the top prospect scene following the 2009 season where he hot .353 in 239 SALLY league at bats. A huge year in 2010, buoyed by favorable California League (High A) ballparks put him amongst the top five prospects in the system. Peguero spent the last two seasons at AAA where he hit .272/.297/.394 in 2012 and .316/.354/.406 in 2013. He consistently rated amongst the top ten prospects in the Giants farm system and his upside, in my opinion, is that of a player cut from the same cloth as current Giants CF, Angel Pagan.

The Good: Peguero has a plus hit tool and is a career .306 hitter in the minors. He has hit for a slightly better average and slightly more power against lefthanded pitching (.310/.324/.456) but he hits righties just fine too (.291/.321/.406). Peguero possesses excellent bat speed with a short and smooth whip through the zone that makes consistent contact – a key reason why he is able to compensate for his “Django unchained” approach at the plate and questionable pitch selection. Peguero is rated by every publication I read as a plus defender, capable of handling CF, with plus arm strength capable for handling RF. His running speed is above average and with a better first step could become a more prolific base stealer.

The Bad: Peguero has the potential for league average power but current production is below average due to the number of bad counts he works himself into and bad pitches he puts in play. He’s also seemingly allergic to drawing walk so while he makes a good deal of contact, his value as a hitter will be tied up in whether he can maintain a high batting average on balls in play. His approach needs refinement and he could stand to be much more disciplined in his pitch selection. Knee injuries have hampered him in recent seasons and could be something of a long-term concern with his energetic style of play. He’s hit just .200 in 45 MLB at bats, but that’s hardly an extended opportunity to show what he can do.

Dan Duquette’s Thoughts…“He was a highly rated prospect in the Giants system,” Duquette said. “Now it seems like he’s ready for the big leagues. He will get an opportunity from us in spring training to show what he has. Given the opportunity and at-bats, he could emerge as a good everyday ballplayer. The fact that he puts the bat on the ball so consistently is in his favor. He just needs to learn some discipline within the strike zone. Having said that, he’s such a good hitter, his on-base capability is solid and it’s been solid his whole career.”

Overall Assessment: Fourth Outfielder, but young enough to improve that outlook

With just 45 at bats at the major league level, Peguero still meets rookie qualifications. Hence, he also meets prospect qualifications and in my opinion, grades out similar to Dariel Alvarez as a prospect. Peguero’s speed and premium outfield defense make him a nice option to have as a potential fourth outfielder for the O’s. While there’s debate among scouts whether his free swinging ways will translate well to the next level, he has nothing left to prove in the minors and perhaps – as Duquette mentions – just needs an opportunity to show what he can do as a regular. The Orioles hope he can blossom in a new setting, turning those impressive tools into more consistent in game skills. He’ll make for an interesting follow in Spring Training. If we live in a perfect world in 2014 where Frank Pegs drastically alters his all-out hacker approach, laying off breaking and offspeed pitches outside the zone and, maybe, just maybe drawing a walk now and then, he could establish himself as an everyday leftfielder thats hits .270-.290 with 10-15 HR, 25-30 2B, 5-10 3B, and 15-20 SB; numbers that Angel Pagan (his ceiling) typically puts up. However, he’s been frustrating scouts for a while now and the frustration is more likely to continue as he becomes a righthanded version of Felix Pie, another toolsy outfielder out of options that the O’s took gave a shot in 2009 with mixed but mostly disappointing results. He has no minor league options remaining and Duquette is pretty bullish on him so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him break camp with the Orioles in 2014.

(Thanks to Fangraphs, MiLB.com, MASNSports.com, Optioned To Fresno, and MinorLeagueBall.com for valuable info in putting this together)

Getting To Know Brad Brach

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DOB: 4/12/86 Age: 27Hometown: Freehold, NJ

College: Monmouth

Drafted: 42nd round, 2008 by San Diego Padres

Height: 6’6″ Weight: 215

Background: The Orioles completed a trade on Nov. 25 with the Padres, sending minor league right-hander Devin Jones for the recently DFA’d Brad Brach. Brach is a tall right-hander who had some success as a mainstay in the Padres bullpen in 2012 but regressed somewhat in 2013, splitting time between AAA and the majors. Brach was a four year member of the Monmouth Hawks rotation where – Fun Fact Alert – he holds the record for career victories and strikeouts. The Padres took a flier on Brach in the 42nd round with the idea that he could have some upside if converted to the bullpen. Right they were, as Brach thrived at every level in the minors, working as the closer at each level he pitched at. I’m an avid follower of minor league stat leaders so recall pretty well Brad Brach being amongst the MiLB leaders in saves in 2010. Another Fun Fact: Brach won the Cal League pitcher of the year in 2010. Sporting a career 2.21 ERA in the minors, Brach made his debut with the Padres on August 30, 2011. Making the opening day roster in 2012, Brach struck out 75 batters in 62.2 innings while pitching to a 3.78 ERA and holding batters to a .207 average. He didn’t have the same dominance in 2013, as an inflated BABIP caused his opponent average to rise to .303 and he struggled limiting the walks, surrendering 19 in 31 innings pitched.

The Good: Brach is mostly a two pitch pitcher (while mixing in the occasional low 80’s sinker as a show me pitch to keep lefties off balance) with the only above average pitch of the combo being his fastball which sits 90-94 MPH with average run. Opponents have batted just .229 off his fastball in the majors. Brach demonstrates a good feel for working all corners of the strikezone even if – as you’ll read in the bad section – he has a tendency to nibble and fall behind to patient hitters. Brach is a strikeout pitcher as evidenced by his 10.06 K/9 in the majors and in the video I watched, does a great job of elevating his fastball with two strikes to get a swinging strike three.

The Bad: Brach’s other pitch is an average slider that’s really more of a slurve than anything with its downward 1-7 movement. He does a decent job of getting wiffs on the pitch when spotted effectively below the strike zone. However, within the zone, batters have hit .289 off the pitch. Brach has struggled to translate the excellent strike throwing abillity he showed in the minors (1.77 BB/9 in 290 innings) to the majors (5.07 BB/9 in 104.2 innings). He has developed a reputation as a nibbler and according to some quotes I read from Padres manager Bud Black, has had issues with simply “trusting his stuff” and going right after hitters. He carries a below average groundball percentage of 35.4% in the majors and his tendency to work his fastball up in the zone leads to many flyballs when hitters put it in play. He’s going from a cavernous Petco Park to a hitters haven in Camden Yards so his flyball tendencies don’t bode well. His career home/road splits also back up that concern.

Home: 2.98 ERA, 4.10 FIP, (.223/.320/.357)

Road: 4.56 ERA, 4.66 FIP, (.258/.369/.410)

Overall Assessment: Average bullpen depth with questionable upside pitching at Camden Yards

Brach reminds me a bit of Kevin Gregg in both his stuff and pitching style and while those two first names may signal bad connotations with most Orioles fans, that’s not a bad upside for Brach to have when he’s not being paid anywhere near “Kevin Gregg” money. Like Gregg, he has a tendency to nibble and may struggle with keeping the ball in the park at Camden Yards. But, he’s shown a penchant for putting hitters away via the strikeout and with his starter’s build, can work multiple innings if needed. That being said, unless he dramatically cuts down on his walks or begins utilizing an effective sinker to improve his groundball %, I have my doubts about Brach making it through the year on the Orioles 40 man roster. A solid-average middle innings man is probably his best case scenario with the Orioles in 2014. His likely scenario is the closer at AAA Norfolk who the Orioles call upon when needed to serve as a decent but replaceable extra arm in the bullpen.

(Thanks to Fangraphs, Mlb.com, and Gaslampball.com for valuable info in putting this together)