Getting To Know: Ryan Webb

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DOB: 2/05/86      Age: 27

Hometown: Clearwater, FL

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted: 4th Round, 2004 by Oakland athletics

HS: Clearwater Central Catholic (FL)

Height: 6’6″      Weight: 245

Contract: 2 YRS, $4.5 MIL

Options: None

Background: The Orioles signed Ryan Webb to a two-year major league contract on Dec. 6 worth $4.5 million. Son of former big leaguer right-hander Hank Webb, Ryan can best be described as a solid middle reliever who leans heavily on his two pitch combo of a mid 90’s sinker and low 80’s slider. The Athletics originally drafted Webb out of high school in 2004 and he quickly signed for a $250,000 bonus. He pitched in 20.1 innings with the rookie level AZL Athletics that Summer, showing promise with 23 strikeouts and just a single walk allowed.

Webb would spend the next three years toiling in A-ball as a starter with uneven results. 2008 marked his final year as a starting pitcher as he failed to impress the A’s brass in his first go round at AA, pitching to a 5.19 ERA with 165 hits allowed in 130 innings pitched. Then 23 years old, Webb found himself a home in the bullpen with the Athletics AAA affiliate in 2009 where he pitched to 4.31 ERA in 45.1 innings but with much better component ratios. The Padres took notice and acquired Webb in a deal that sent outfielder Scott Hairston to the A’s. Webb would make his major league debut that Summer on July 8, 2009 and pitched 25.2 innings in the majors that year, sporting a 3.86 ERA. Webb began the year at AAA in 2010, but once a spot opened up for Webb in the Padres bullpen, he ran with it, pitching to a 2.90 ERA in 59 innings.

The Padres included Webb along with Edward Mujica that offseason in a deal with the Marlins that brought them outfielder Cameron Maybin. Webb posted another solid season in 2011, with his performance plummeting in 2012 (albeit due to an inflated BABIP), before rebounding in 2013 with his strongest season yet. Webb pitched to a 2.91 ERA with the Marlins in 2013, reaching career highs with 66 appearances, 80.1 innings pitched and 54 strikeouts, along with a career low .231 opponent AVG.

The Marlins strangely decide to non-tender Webb after his best season, reportedly not wanting to pay him more than $1.5 million in arbitration. In other strange news, Grantland of all publications, was the first to report this signing. Why, Grantland? How on earth were they ahead the Orioles beat writers or Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports in reporting the signing of a non-tendered Marlins reliever? Random

The Good: Webb took a huge step forward in 2013, showing equal dominance versus both left and right handed batters (.238 AVG versus lefties; .226 AVG versus righties) after previously struggling to get lefties out. This fangraphs article explains how he altered his pitching approach to have more success with lefthanded batters. The slider is Webb’s out-pitch, a true swing and miss offering that opposing batters went just 17-for-102 (.167 AVG) with 36 strikeouts during the 2013 season.

Webb was particularly dominant after the all star break with his first half ERA dropping from 3.14 to 2.65 in the second half, opponent AVG dropping from .262 to .222, BB/9 rate dropping from 4.40 to 1.45, K/9 rate increasing from 5.44 to 6.75 – which once more begs the question – why did the Marlins non-tender this guy after such a strong finish?

Some have drawn up comparisons between former Orioles closer Jim Johnson and Ryan Webb. While the two throw different breaking balls, there is a similarity in the sinking mid 90’s fastball and above average groundball rates both post. Webb boasts an excellent career 57.4% groundball rate which is strikingly similar to Jim Johnson’s career 57.7% groundball rate.

The Bad: His command within the strikezone of his sinking fastball can get spotty at times. The pitch has also proven to be hittable as opponents have batted .309 against the sinker during his career. However, the pitch is largely responsible for Webb’s strong groundball rate and one could argue that less of those sinkers put in play will go for hits with the Orioles elite infield defense behind him. Webb has spent his entire career pitching in the NL, so it’s possible transitioning to pitching in the AL East could be a difficult adjustment.

Overall Assessment: Middle Reliever (with Late Inning Potential)

As of now, according to Roch Kubatko, “Webb still isn’t regarded as a candidate to close”, which means he will likely begin the year as the go-to 7th inning man and/or groundball specialist with runners on base. Considering he’s moving from one of the worst to one of the best infield defenses, one could make an argument that Webb will have a lower batting average on balls in play when batters make contact with his sinker. Provided he acclimates well to pitching in the AL East, Webb could very well pitch himself into a setup role with potential to close for the Orioles this season if Tommy Hunter (who I assume will close) falters. For now, Webb looks like he’ll be a consistently effective, occasionally dominant middle reliever for the Orioles and should post an ERA in the 2.80-to-3.20 range.

(Thanks to Orioles-Nation.com, Masnsports.com, Fangraphs, MLB.com, and Baltimore Sun for valuable info in putting this together)

Nailed It (Sort of)

Today, June the 8th, the MLB Draft makes its merry little conclusion with a rapid fire style selection of rounds 11-40 starting at 1 o’clock ET. I will be tuned in for every Orioles selection in hopes that one of them just maybe, just might be someone I happen to know. I’m talking about my brother Harry Slade, a Senior CF from Southeastern Louisiana. He’s “undersized” but he can run fast (timed him recently at a 6.54 in the 60) bats and throws left, and has a great glove in center and a nice, disciplined approach to hitting; with lack of power upside his main drawback. But, if guys like Matt Angle and Kyle Hudson were worth Orioles draft picks, I don’t see why Harry isn’t. Ultimately, I just hope someone gives him a chance; he deserves it. We’ll see.

Moving on

Why did I title this post nailed it…sort of.

Because I’m here to blog about the two little things that happened the first night of the draft that I somewhat saw coming.

– First one

On Wednesday, I was asked to participate in a mock draft over at Baltimore Sports and Life. I was given the “highly desirable” task of picking for the Miami Marlins. When my turn in the draft order came up, I decided to choose North Carolina 3B, Colin Moran. My reasoning: You look at Casey Kotchman and Placido Polanco (in other words: retreads) on the major league roster and a complete dearth of corner infield prospects in the minors and I’m like – this is a no brainer – Colin Moran is the obvious choice here and he can help this sad sack of a franchise sooner than later. Sure enough, Moran happened to be available when the real life Marlins were on the clock and they just happened to agree with my line of thinking, also choosing Moran. Nailed it.

– Second one

Around these parts (Minorioles.com), I’ve been steadfastly trying to prepare myself as best as a one man wrecking crew (me) can possibly do for this draft. I tried my best to do as many previews of as many high school and college prospects, position by position, as I could with the little free time that I have. I also decided to carefully study the possible choices that the Orioles might consider for their first pick and profile the ones I liked in particular in my “Quest for Pick 22” series. I ended doing profiles on Hunter Renfroe (#13), Marco Gonzales (#19), Chris Anderson (#18), and…wait for it…Hunter Harvey!

I actually planned on doing several more but as fate would have it I didn’t need to do any more because I was able to correctly profile a player who would go on to become the Orioles first pick: Hunter Harvey, high school right hander from North Carolina.

Nailed it…sort of

Why sort of? Because, technically I didn’t predict Harvey to the O’s. I just suggested he should be under strong consideration if available with our first pick.

I love the pick. The kid “isn’t a fan of college” and is ready to start his pro career as soon as he can. I’m confident he can handle the transition to pro ball considering his family background. His dad, Bryan Harvey, is a former MLB closer and his older brother, Kris Harvey, pitches in the minors for the Marlins. He has “now stuff” with a fastball that sits in the low 90’s and a sharp curve and when you look at his projectable frame, he’s far from a finished product. He could be a real gem 3-4 years from now if he develops the way we expect him to. Without further ado…

Welcome to the O’s!

Hunter Harvey, this summer’s main attraction for the Aberdeen Ironbirds

The Honorable Mention List (Because 100 Prospects Isn’t Enough)

Why have an honorable mention list? Because this is my one and only chance to save face when the inevitable happens and a few big time stars develop from the ranks of the unranked players who missed the cut for my Top 100. These are all the guys who have very intriguing profiles and just missed making my list. I only have 100 spots after all. There’s always going to be additional 25-50 names you can make a compelling case for. I have 25 listed here and fully expect several of them to outshine some of the bums I believed in but ultimately let me down on the Top 100.

HM/

Nick Tropeano – RHP – Astros – Age: 22 – Level: AA – Former Stony Brook ace just missed my Top 100. Had a tremendous year between A and A+. Needs to prove the velocity gains are for real with a strong season at AA. Great command of 4 average pitches. #3/#4 upside. Similar to Dan Straily.

Sean Nolin – LHP – Blue Jays – Age: 23 – Level: AA – Big sleeper lefty with a nice sinker. Potential #4 starter.

Adams was a 23rd Round pick out of Slippery Rock. I root for guys like this

Matt Adams – 1B – Cardinals – Age: 24 – Level: AAA – Might regret leaving him off Top 100. Big guy with 25-30 HR potential that has hit .300 at every level. Problem is he’s a bad athlete that’s limited to 1B and may struggle catching up to advanced velocities and breaking balls with his average bat speed.

Dan Vogelbach – 1B – Cubs – Age: 20 – Level: A – Everything I said about Adams, except much younger and has yet to play full season ball. Fat dude can flat out hit though.

Stryker Trahan – C – Diamondbacks – Level: A – Top high school catcher in last year’s draft. Hit well in SS ball. Could be in for big breakthrough this year.

Chris Stratton – RHP – Giants – Age: 22 – Level: A – Has a good, not great fastball/ slider combo. Not sure he’ll stick as starter yet.

Dorsyss Paulino – SS – Indians – Age: 18 – Level: A – Young, very athletic, great toolset. Need to see how full season debut goes before a jumping on bandwagon but has high potental.

Some think Heaney was a reach at #9 overall in the 2012 draft. Time will tell.

Andrew Heaney – LHP – Marlins – Age: 21 – Level: A – Strikethrowing lefty with good sinking fastball. Has limited upside but is polished and should develop into a solid #4 starter.

Nate Karns – RHP – Nationals – Age: 25 – Level: AA – Needs to prove he can stay healthy enough to handle a starter’s workload but Karns has premium stuff. Likely ends up in bullpen as a setup reliever.

Eduardo Rodriguez – LHP – Orioles – Age: 20 – Level: A+ Big sleeper prospect for the O’s. Has mid rotation upside. Detailed report on him here.

Robbie Erlin – LHP – Padres – Age: 22 – Level: AAA – Small lefty with middling stuff but throws strikes and knows how to pitch effectively. Might make a nice back of the rotation starter.

Matt Wisler – RHP – Padres – Age: 20 – Level: A+ Underrated sleeper that could jump onto more radars this year. Potential #4 control artist type starter. Young enough to improve that outlook.

Morgan is an alumnus of Roll Tide Nation

Adam Morgan – LHP – Phillies – Age: 23 – Level: AAA – Polished lefhander that nearly made the Top 100. Should make a nice back of the rotation starter.

Barrett Barnes – OF – Pirates – Age: 21 – Level: A – Not an elite talent and lacks ideal power but knows how to freakin hit and could be a nice find in the 2nd round for the Pirates.

Cody Buckel – RHP – Rangers – Age: 20 – Level: AA – Might regret leaving him off list. Doesn’t throw hard but pounds the strike zone and has the makings of a decent changeup. #4 starter upside. If he passes the dreaded AA test – not sold he will – he’ll definitely be on the Top 100 next year.

My pick for this year’s Minor League HR leader

Joey Gallo – 3B – Rangers – Age: 19 – Level: A – Mammoth power potential. I’m talking Chris Davis raw power. Will he hit enough for it to matter?

Hak Ju Lee – SS – Rays – Age: 22 – Level: AAA – Outstanding glove and can steal a base. Will the hit enough for it to matter?

Jesse Winker – OF – Reds – Age: 19 – Level: A – One of my favorite sleeper prospects from the 2012 draft. If he hits like he did in short season ball last year, he’ll jump onto everyone’s radar. Reminds me of Nick Markakis.

Bryce Brentz – OF – Red Sox – Age: 24 – Level: AAA – Another guy with big power but questionable plate discipline. May end up a late bloomer, Ryan Ludwick type. Could see time with the Bosux later this year.

Garin Cecchini – 3B – Red Sox – Age: 22 – Level: A+ Kid has a great hit tool and can hit for AVG. IF the power develops, he could become a quality everyday starter down the road.

As a Red Sox hater, I hope he doesn’t have a breakout year

Henry Owens – LHP – Red Sox – Age: 20 – Level: A+ Big sleeper prospect. Tall, lanky, projectable, and lefthanded – a scout’s wet dream –  that already throws hard but needs to develop more movement on pitches.

Kyle Parker – OF – Rockies – Age: 23 – Level: AA – Great athlete, former Clemson QB. Shows good patience at the plate and has good pop. Not sure he’ll hit for AVG yet. Another guy I’d like to see pass the ‘AA Test’ before including in the Top 100.

Bruce Rondon – RHP – Tigers – Age: 22 – Level: AAA – Potential closer. Can bring triple digits consistently. Needs serious work on control though.

DAS BOOT!!!

Max Kepler – CF – Twins – Age: 20 – Level: A – Premium 5 tool athlete from…GERMANY. Yep. Looking forward to seeing how his full season debut goes. Showed a lot of promise in short season ball last summer.

Carlos Sanchez – 2B – White Sox – Age: 22 – Level: AAA – Doesn’t hit for power but is a tremendous contact hitter who can hit .300 in the bigs and can steal 25 bases. Could end up a poor man’s Jose Altuve.

The Top 100 Prospects According To…Me, Part 2

26. Aaron Sanchez – RHP – Blue Jays – Age: 21 – Level: A+ Sanchez has rough command at the moment which may hold him back but I love the plus power fastball and improved secondary offerings. Has #1/#2 ceiling.

27. Taylor Guerreri – RHP – Rays – Age: 20 – Level: A – I’m bullish on Guerreri who is far from the majors but I think could be in line for a breakout season, establishing himself as a Top 25 guy next year. Throws a plus 92-95 MPH fastball with an outpitch curve.

Martinez Bullpen Sesh

28. Carlos Martinez – RHP – Cardinals – Age: 21 – Level: AA – I really like Martinez pitch ability and makeup. He’s undersized but don’t let that fool you. He brings a quality mid 90’s fastball and power curve. Needs to improve durability but has #2 starter upside.

29. Gary Sanchez – C – Yankees – Age: 20 – Level: AA – 50/50 chance at sticking at C. I think he can as an offensive minded catcher, with potential to hit for elite power and average if he improves his plate discipline and overall durability.

30. Tyler Skaggs – LHP – Diamondbacks – Age: 21 – Level: AAA Not as high on Skaggs as others. I think he’s more of a solid #3, Matt Harrison type, than the potential #1/#2 others project as his ceiling.

31. Anthony Rendon – 3B – Nationals – Age: 23 – Level: AA – Excellent defender. Lightning quick bat speed gives him 25 HR upside. Great batting eye allows for high OBP. Will he stay healthy enough for it all to matter?

Teheran in action with the Braves

32. Julio Teheran – RHP – Braves – Age: 22 – MADE MLB ROSTER – Apparently, Teheran has turned a corner this Spring showing signs of the pitcher that ranked #3 on this list two years ago. I may end up having him too low. Still has #1/#2 upside but I’m not entirely sold he reaches it just yet.

33. Jonathan Singleton – 1B – Astros – Age: 21 – Level: AAA – Singleton has a chance to be a very productive 1B who draws a crapload of walks and can put out 25-30 home runs in his prime. Could be up with the Astros after the all star break if he obliterates AAA pitching.

34. Archie Bradley – RHP – Diamondbacks – Age: 20 – Level: A+ Dylan Bundy’s high school rival. Great fastball velocity and potential plus secondaries. Control and command need serious work though. Far from a finished product.

35. Albert Almora – CF – Cubs – Age: 19 – Level: A – Reminds me of Christian Yelich when he was drafted. Has to prove himself over a full season but Almora has a tremendous natural feel for hitting. How his power and base running ability develop will determine his upside.

36. Jackie Bradley, Jr. – CF – Red Sox – Age: 22 – MADE MLB ROSTER – Bradley, former Gamecock CWS hero, brings a nice combination of OBP, speed, and plus defense, and should be able to put out 15 HR a season. Reminds me of the good Coco Crisp. My pick for A.L ROY.

Dodgers have 40 mil invested in this guy, or what Magic Johnson calls ‘chump change’

37. Yasiel Puig – OF – Dodgers – Age: 22 – Level: AAA – After a torrid Spring, Puig has generated some buzz in Dodgerland as a potential impact regular with tremendous power. Needs to work on plate discipline and keep weight under control or he’ll end up like washing out like Wily Mo Pena.

38. Nick Castellanos – 3B – Tigers – Age: 21 – Level: AA – Doubt he sticks at third. Also, have questions about his plate discipline but he has a great hit tool with potential for 20-25 HR power. High ceiling as an impact hitter but some bust potential too.

39. Chris Archer – RHP – Rays – Age: 24 – Level: AAA – Love Archer’s upside. His two seam fastball and slider combo is lethal. However, his ability to command them isn’t. If he can put it all together, has #1/#2 upside. If not, he’ll become a potential all star closer.

40. Jorge Soler – RF – Cubs – Age: 21 – Level: A+ I’m impressed with Soler, a big D.R. signee for the Cubs who brings light tower power and a rocket arm in RF to the table. I think he can hit for average too.

41. Trevor Rosenthal – RHP – Cardinals – Age: 23 – MADE MLB ROSTER – Rosy returns to the pen where he dominated last September in the Cardinals successful playoff push. Has potential down the road as a #2/#3 if he refines his secondaries enough to compliment his power mid 90’s fastball.

42. Gregory Polanco – OF – Pirates – Age: 21 – Level: A+ The raw, 5 tool talent Dominican had a huge breakout season at Low A last year. If success translates forward to higher levels I could see him developing into a Dexter Fowler type player.

Mike Olt in action for the Rangers

43. Mike Olt – 3B – Rangers – Age: 24 – Level: AAA – Not as big on him as others. He’ll be productive and hit for 20 – 30 HR power. But, I question his ability to keep the K’s under control as well as remain at 3B long term. Should be a solid everyday player.

44. Mason Williams – CF – Yankees – Age: 21 – Level: AA – Could be overrating him some but Williams is a premium athlete with great natural feel for hitting. Needs to show more durability. Reminds me of former Yankees CF prospect Austin Jackson.

45. David Dahl – CF – Rockies – Age: 19 – Level: A – Another 2012 high school draftee who absolutely destroyed short season ball. Reminds me of a potential Colby Rasmus.

46. Alex Meyer – RHP – Twins – Age: 23 – Level: AA – The big 6’9″ righty brings a mid 90’s fastball and much improved command from his college days at Kentucky. Potential mid rotation guy. A nice get from the Nationals for Denard Span.

Nicolino, the big prize from the Blue Jays mega deal

47. Justin Nicolino – LHP – Marlins – Age: 21 – Level: A+ – Really like Nicolino. Stuff doesn’t wow you but it’s all solid, and he just knows how to freakin pitch. At age 21, could end up exceeding current #3/#4 expectations.

48. Danny Hultzen – LHP – Mariners – Age: 23 – Level: AAA – Not as big on Hultzen as I was last year. Looks like a solid #3 starter at best. Needs to sharpen control issues that plagued him at AAA last year. The fastball and slider are still quality pitches.

49. Oswaldo Arcia – RF – Twins – Age: 22 – Level: AA – Short, stocky with good pop and a strong arm in RF. Reminds of a Dominican version of former twins OF Jason Kubel.

50. Noah Syndergaard – RHP – Mets – Age: 20 – Level: AA – Big Syndergaard fan. His 91-94 MPH fastball and plus changeup combo with good command gives him #2/#3 upside IF he can develop a better breaking ball.

– Prospects 51 – 75 here