Marco Gonzales > Kelly Olynyk
Height: 6’1″ Weight: 190
DOB: 2/16/92 Age: 21
Bats: L Throws: L
Hometown: Fort Collins, CO
High School: Rocky Mountain
College: Gonzaga
Previously Drafted: 29th Round, 2010 by Rockies
(Former Gatorade Colorado High School POY)
Scouting Report
Fastball: 89-92 MPH – Solid average velocity for a left handed starter. In my opinion, just looking at Gonzales’ body type, he doesn’t offer much physical projection. He also features a sound, repeatable delivery which is a good thing but ultimately means he likely won’t be making any unforeseen velocity increases via mechanical changes or physical growth.
Cutter: 80-83 MPH – Apparently he is working with some variation of a cutter, or slurvy breaking pitch. It’s not a swing and miss offering but if spotted well, can help neutralize right handed batters.
Changeup: 76-80 MPH – His best pitch. Gets good arm action on the pitch with ideal velocity separation from fastball. He spots it well, and at times has great fade on pitch, making it a groundout inducer when placed in the lower half of the zone.
Curveball: 75 – 77 MPH – A slower more traditional curveball-y breaking pitch. Another pitch that is fringy but has shown good command of it.
If the Orioles are aiming for a high ceiling pitcher with their first pick, Gonzales probably isn’t their guy. If everything breaks right for him, he’s probably a solid mid rotation starter, maybe a 3-4 WAR guy in his prime years if he develops consistently plus command. However, he will likely zip through the minors and is something of a ‘safe pick’ due to his very consistent track record. The key to Marco Gonzales reaching his upside as a solid #3 starter will be how well he develops his curveball and cut-piece, which both currently lag behind the changeup. A Wandy Rodriguez type could be his ceiling. He doesn’t have sexy upside but he’s a safe bet to at worst be an average, innings eating number 4 (think Paul Maholm) due to his above average command and control and the outpitch changeup. Isn’t a big guy but is an excellent athlete, and has proven to be very durable when you consider he also plays regularly at 1B for the Zags when he’s not pitching. He’s their leading hitter (.321 AVG) too. The guy does it all.
Here’s a puff piece video on Gonzales from the WCC athletics website.
Year by Year Pitching Stats
2011 (Freshman Year)
|
GS |
W |
L |
ERA |
IP |
H |
HR |
BB |
K |
GO/AO |
AVG |
|
15 |
11 |
2 |
2.57 |
105 |
83 |
5 |
21 |
90 |
0.99 |
.221 |
2012 (Sophomore Year)
|
GS |
W |
L |
ERA |
IP |
H |
HR |
BB |
K |
WHIP |
AVG |
|
12 |
8 |
2 |
1.55 |
92.2 |
63 |
3 |
23 |
92 |
0.93 |
.201 |
2013 (Junior Year)
|
GS |
W |
L |
ERA |
IP |
H |
HR |
BB |
K |
WHIP |
AVG |
|
14 |
7 |
2 |
2.57 |
98 |
91 |
0 |
22 |
91 |
1.15 |
.249 |
Interesting Fact: His father, Frank Gonzales, played eleven years of pro ball in the minors for the Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Pirates. Buzzword: bloodlines
Final Thoughts: When I first started this piece, I was pretty big on Gonzales. But, the more I’ve researched him, the more I feel like the O’s should pass on him in favor of someone with more upside. I don’t like that his secondary offerings still need work and the fastball looks average at best. Plus, this is a fairly deep class for college lefties and I feel like guys like Tom Windle (Minnesota), Kent Emmanuel (North Carolina), Dillon Overton (Oklahoma State) and further down on the list Matt Boyd (Oregon State) offer similar profiles and will be available to take with our later picks. Gonzales has been a consensus mid-to-late first round projection pick all season though so I figured I’d profile him anyway and I’d be happy with him as the Orioles first pick if they decide to take the high ceiling prep player/pitcher with their compensation round (no.39) pick.
Up next in the Quest for Pick No. 22 Series: Hunter Harvey, Chris Anderson, Alex Gonzalez, and Jon Denney
Slade's Top Orioles Prospects 