Here’s what going on around here in the next week or so:
As much as my ten readers, whoever you are, enjoy my dope Minorioles HOTSHEETS, I am suspending that little venture for the time being, until after the draft is completely wrapped up.
I can only handle so much with my job, and other time commitments, and I really want to do the draft and college baseball coverage (over at Minor League Ball) its due justice.
Here’s my upcoming schedule:
– Today: Keep working on profiles for outfielders and middle infielders
– Tomorrow: Jon Denney profile, submit LB Dantzler notes to Crawfish Boxes (SB Nation site), have Southern regionals preview ready to submit Friday morning for Minor League Ball
– Weekend: More Orioles Draft Target profiles
– Next Week: MLB Draft Preview: Lefty Pitchers and Righty Pitchers
(Those two lists will be a chore, but this is a labor of love)
– Next Thursday: CHRISTMAS IN JUNE
Here’s a link to The Crawfish Boxes’ MLB Draft Profile on South Carolina’s Nolan Belcher. No Big Deal, but I kinda get quoted in the piece. As a proud Gamecock, I like to think I know our team fairly well. Summary: Belcher might make a decent LOOGY one day.
That’s it. Peace out. In celebration of Chris Davis’s awesomeness, I’ll end this post with a picture of ‘the Deputy’ holding a chimp. You’re welcome.
Chris Davis doesn’t monkey around when it comes to hitting baseballs
Fastball: 89-92 MPH – Solid average velocity for a left handed starter. In my opinion, just looking at Gonzales’ body type, he doesn’t offer much physical projection. He also features a sound, repeatable delivery which is a good thing but ultimately means he likely won’t be making any unforeseen velocity increases via mechanical changes or physical growth.
Cutter: 80-83 MPH – Apparently he is working with some variation of a cutter, or slurvy breaking pitch. It’s not a swing and miss offering but if spotted well, can help neutralize right handed batters.
Changeup: 76-80 MPH – His best pitch. Gets good arm action on the pitch with ideal velocity separation from fastball. He spots it well, and at times has great fade on pitch, making it a groundout inducer when placed in the lower half of the zone.
Curveball: 75 – 77 MPH – A slower more traditional curveball-y breaking pitch. Another pitch that is fringy but has shown good command of it.
If the Orioles are aiming for a high ceiling pitcher with their first pick, Gonzales probably isn’t their guy. If everything breaks right for him, he’s probably a solid mid rotation starter, maybe a 3-4 WAR guy in his prime years if he develops consistently plus command. However, he will likely zip through the minors and is something of a ‘safe pick’ due to his very consistent track record. The key to Marco Gonzales reaching his upside as a solid #3 starter will be how well he develops his curveball and cut-piece, which both currently lag behind the changeup. A Wandy Rodriguez type could be his ceiling. He doesn’t have sexy upside but he’s a safe bet to at worst be an average, innings eating number 4 (think Paul Maholm) due to his above average command and control and the outpitch changeup. Isn’t a big guy but is an excellent athlete, and has proven to be very durable when you consider he also plays regularly at 1B for the Zags when he’s not pitching. He’s their leading hitter (.321 AVG) too. The guy does it all.
Here’s a puff piece video on Gonzales from the WCC athletics website.
Year by Year Pitching Stats
2011 (Freshman Year)
GS
W
L
ERA
IP
H
HR
BB
K
GO/AO
AVG
15
11
2
2.57
105
83
5
21
90
0.99
.221
2012 (Sophomore Year)
GS
W
L
ERA
IP
H
HR
BB
K
WHIP
AVG
12
8
2
1.55
92.2
63
3
23
92
0.93
.201
2013 (Junior Year)
GS
W
L
ERA
IP
H
HR
BB
K
WHIP
AVG
14
7
2
2.57
98
91
0
22
91
1.15
.249
Interesting Fact: His father, Frank Gonzales, played eleven years of pro ball in the minors for the Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Pirates. Buzzword: bloodlines
Final Thoughts: When I first started this piece, I was pretty big on Gonzales. But, the more I’ve researched him, the more I feel like the O’s should pass on him in favor of someone with more upside. I don’t like that his secondary offerings still need work and the fastball looks average at best. Plus, this is a fairly deep class for college lefties and I feel like guys like Tom Windle (Minnesota), Kent Emmanuel (North Carolina), Dillon Overton (Oklahoma State) and further down on the list Matt Boyd (Oregon State) offer similar profiles and will be available to take with our later picks. Gonzales has been a consensus mid-to-late first round projection pick all season though so I figured I’d profile him anyway and I’d be happy with him as the Orioles first pick if they decide to take the high ceiling prep player/pitcher with their compensation round (no.39) pick.
Up next in the Quest for Pick No. 22 Series: Hunter Harvey, Chris Anderson, Alex Gonzalez, and Jon Denney
Now that the NFL draft has concluded, its time to (at least for me) to shift my focus to the MLB draft!
As you may or may not know, for the first time since Hanson was still relevant music, the Orioles will be picking beyond the top 15 picks in the MLB draft. That’s right. The Orioles proudly hold pick no. 22 in this year’s first year player draft on June 6, 2013 after their return to dominance during the stellar 2012 campaign. We also hold the no. 37 pick (supplemental 1st round) in this years draft thanks to MLB’s new competitive balance lottery picks. I’m more excited than Bieber fangirl (and I live with one by the way) about the MLB draft this June.
See, I’ve been following college baseball a gazillion times more closely this year than I ever did – and I was already an avid follower since 2010 – thanks to my work with Minor League Ball. I’m fascinated to see where all the top college prospects wind up going in the draft. Of course, I’m not nearly as familiar with all the high school prospects but that’s what Baseball America and Perfect Game are there to help me out with.
With the no. 22 pick comes a wide array of possibilities for scouting director Gary Rajsich. Come draft time, he may have a specific player in mind that he expects to be available and that’s who we get regardless of who else is available. He also may not have a particular player he favors and may just grab whoever ranks highest on the Orioles board when it’s their turn to pick.
I don’t know how it will unfold but my plan with this here blog is to highlight about ten names I expect and/or want to be serious candidates to go off the board when the Orioles make their first selection. In the coming weeks, I will profile a player (or two) each week up to the June 6 draft. I plan to do my first draft prospect profile on my favorite position player in college baseball this year: Mississippi State outfielder, Hunter Renfroe.
Pregame thoughts (skip if you want): The rainy weather has tapered off, the tarp is off the field, and my ass is firmly planted in a 4th row seat behind home plate. Hallelujah, we will be playing baseball this ugly, overcast afternoon. Let’s do this. Scouts galore on hand today as expected with Junior right hander Ryne Stanek on the mound for Arkansas. Some dude from Perfect Game has his radar gun in one hand and a stop watch in the other. The Gamecocks were shellacked 15-3 last night and the task doesn’t get any easier with a talented arm like Stanek pitching. It’s time for the natty anthem as both teams are ready to get the game under way.
Watch this at your own discretion. It’s barely comprehensible. I need a camcorder with me next time I do this.
Moving on…
1st Inning
Stanek retired the side in order including two strikeouts and a pop up to 1B. Showed good command of an impressive 92-95 mph Fastball. Mixed in a couple average 85 mph Changeups.
2nd Inning
Stanek’s Fastball continued to sit 92-95 with some late life. He retired the side again, showing surprising efficiency for a pitcher I expected to have control issues from time to time. Only 3 ball count was to 1B LB Dantzler who struck out swinging on a 94 mph high and away Fastball. Started mixing in a few sliders, 84 – 86, none of which were thrown for strikes.
3rd Inning
Fastball sitting 92 – 95 mph. Worked a few more sliders in, 84 – 86. Struggled to command the pitch but some of them showed nice sharp break. Worked in a few 85 mph changeup, none of which appeared more than ‘show-me’ pitches. Should have retired the side again, but #9 hitter Shon Carson (who doubles as a football player) laid down a bunt and reached first when the 2B missed what should have been an easy tag out of Carson.
(Carson would be thrown out at second to end the inning.)
4th Inning
Trying to lean on the slider more the second time through the order but had issues keeping them out of the dirt. Pitch was yet again 84-86. Fastball still coming in at 92 – 95. Because of the slider control struggles, allowed first walk to Joey Pankake. Went 3-2 to Dantzler again, striking him out once more on a high and inside fastball.
5th Inning
Velocity mostly 92-93, with some 94’s now. Didn’t record any strikeouts this inning as the Gamecock hitters started to adjust and make contact with the fastball. However, they couldn’t put quality swing on the pitch thanks to its late life. An unearned run was allowed thanks to an error on the shortstop which allowed leadoff batter Greyson Greiner to reach second.
(As a fan, I loved seeing the Gamecocks small ball their way to a run with a sac bunt, followed by a sac fly, but Greiner shouldn’t have been on base to begin with.)
6th Inning
Fastball now 92- 93, occasionally dropping to 91. Despite this, this was the one inning, the slider was really working. Still shaky with command but the pitch quality was there. Allowed his second ‘hit’ when Tanner English reached on the cheapast swinging bunt infield single you can imagine. The infield helped him out for once as a wicked 86 mph slider induced a weak grounder to second base leading to an inning ending double play.
7th Inning
Looked semi-fatigued. Mechanics were a little sloppy at times. When I say that I mean I saw difference in overall delivery and arm slot from pitch to pitch probably due to some fatigue. I also began to notice how Stanek likes to throw his changeup more to lefties and he spotted the pitch well against them. Retired the side in order. With the pitch count rising and apparent fatigue settling in, I figured he was done for the day.
8th Inning
Arkansas took a 4-1 lead in the top of the inning so they left Stanek in. A seeing eye single by Conner Bright, followed by a throwing error by the SS allowed Bright to get to 3rd. A sac fly brought him home. Stanek was still hitting 92-93, with some 94’s mixed in again.
9th Inning
Was surprised to see Stanek trot out for the 9th Inning but a funny thing happened: He buckled down, didn’t show any further signs of fatigue, and retired the side in order to finish off the complete game, throwing 125 pitches on the day.
Final Line: 9 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 10 FO, 8 GO
Overall Thoughts
– Fastball: As expected the Fastball velocity was mostly 92 – 94 throughout the game, showing me he can hold his velocity. The first 4 innings he was getting it up to 95 consistently too. He also had a few pitches where he reached back for a little extra and got it up to 96 – 97, suggesting he could possibly sit 94- 96 in shorter stints as a reliever. The hitters couldn’t touch it and it showed great late life at times.
– Slider: If he’s going to succeed at the next level, the slider needs to flash plus more consistently with better command too. I’d say out of every 5 sliders he threw today, 2 showed plus break, and of those 2, one was commanded well for a strike. Basically, the pitch flashed plus but was inconsistent and needs refinement.
– Changeup: He showed decent feel for the changeup, spotting it particularly well versus lefties. This might be nitpicky, but I’m not a huge fan of it coming in consistently 85-86, making it only 6 – 8 mph less than his FB. He also leaves it up in the zone at times too. With time, can probably become a solid average major league pitch.
This was only one outing of course and I’m an amateur at best so take my opinion on things for what it’s worth…I saw a pitcher that knows how to pitch effectively and at times dominate with his fastball as a starting pitcher. He leaned heavily on his quality fastball, which works against college hitters when his command is on – as I witnessed Saturday – but likely won’t work once he reaches the upper minors where he’ll need more consistent command of his secondaries too.
The good news is I was impressed with his poise and demeanor on the mound and I think he has the ‘pitchability’ you look for in a starter. The key for Stanek is simply refining his secondaries and showing more consistent command of them from start to start. I’d also like to see him put on another 15-20 pounds on to his wiry 6’4″ 180 lb frame because as mentioned in the 7th inning, I noticed his mechanics becoming a little sloppy with apparent fatigue setting in.
From a draft standpoint, I’d have him #3 among college starters behind Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray but ahead of Sean Manaea.