Player Profile: Wesley Wright – LHP

Here’s an overview of the Orioles latest bullpen addition. To discuss this post, please visit this forum link at OriolesHangout.com

Full Name: Dequam LaWesley Wright

DOB: 1/28/85 Age: 29

Hometown: Montgomery, AL

Bats/Throws: R/L

Drafted: 7th Round, 2003

High School: Goshen HS (AL)

Height: 5’10″ Weight: 185

Background: The Orioles signed Wesley Wright to a 1-year, $1.7 MM deal on Dec. 19, that includes a $50 K performance bonus if he appears in 60 games. A seven-year veteran now, Wright has found his groove the over the past four seasons, carrying a 3.25 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 123 ERA+, 8.5 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 in 166.1 innings pitched. Wright was originally selected in the 7th round out of high school by the Dodgers, pitching mostly as a reliever in their farm system. He’s a rule five success story, having spent his entire rookie season in the Astros bullpen in 2008 after they selected him from the Dodgers farm system.

Strengths: Wright does an above average job with retiring left handed batters and should be a reliable LOOGY in the Orioles bullpen. Over his career, he has struck lefties out at a 26.6% clip along with an outstanding K/9 of 10.24. Lefties have posted a career slash line of .234/.315/.331 which may not be Andrew Miller-esque (sorry) but definitely enough to cut the mustard at the major league level. Fun Fact: Wright did not allow a single extra base hit to lefties last year in 85 plate appearances!

Wright works with a low-90’s two seamer that he loves to puns the bottom half of the zone with. He has averaged an excellent 52.6% groundball rate over his last four years, making him a good fit for Camden Yards. His best pitch is a his plus 83-85 MPH slider that sweeps and slightly changes planes late that he uses as his out pitch. He’ll also work in an upper 70’s sweeping curveball and a mid-80’s changeup. Wright keeps his delivery simple, pitching from stretch with a high 3/4 arm slot. He repeats his mechanics well and has been durable throughout his career, pitching at least 48.1 innings of relief work every season since 2006.

Weaknesses: Wright has a tendency to nibble which can lead to control problems, particularly against right handed batters. He has walked 4.62 batters per 9 innings when facing righties in his career as opposed to a 3.20 BB/9 versus lefties. His career K/9 also dips down to 7.40 versus righties. Despite favorable groundball rates, right handed batters haven’t had too much difficulty squaring up Wright. He has allowed 30 home runs and a .479 slugging percentage to right handed batters in his career. In roughly the same amount of innings pitched to lefties, he’s allowed just 7 home runs and a .331 SLG percentage.

His changeup lacks ideal velocity separation, coming in roughly 5-7 MPH slower than his fastball. Command of the pitch is also erratic but he’ll occasionally flash a plus one with late arm side fade to finish off a batter. Improvement in consistency and quality of this pitch could make him more effective versus righties. His sweeper curveball can get a bit loopy at times but is a decent change-of-pace pitch when spotted low in the zone. After posting K/9’s above 9 the previous two seasons, Wright’s K/9 plummeted to 6.89 in 2014. He remained effective, but still worth mentioning.

Overall Outlook: Wright is a solid average big league reliever. His mediocre control has me hesitant to call him a viable late innings option, but he looks like a reliable LOOGY for middle innings work with – as it stands now – Brian Matusz likely being to go-to guy for a tough lefty later in the game. With Matusz projected for a $2.4 million raise, speculation has emerged that Wright could be a slightly cheaper replacement that allows the Orioles to market Matusz as a trade chip for another outfielder. We shall see if that is the case. Wright is set to hit free agency after the 2015 season. Ultimately, I expect he’ll post his usual solid but unspectacular low-3’s ERA with some upside to be more than that on the off chance he cuts his walk rate way down, given his strikeout stuff.

(Special thanks to the Baltimore Sun, Fangraphs, video footage from MLB.com, and MLB Scouting Reports, for valuable info in putting this together)

Bud Norris Trade Analysis

Let’s start out the analytics process with a look at the big picture. The Orioles as of July 31, 2013 are 59-49 and in the thick of the playoff hunt. They still have a fair chance at catching the Rays and/or Red Sox and if that plan fails, they are in good shape to contend for one of the wild card spots all the way down to the wire. After many years of uncompetitive baseball in Baltimore, the Orioles organization isn’t about to let last year’s long overdue taste of success pass flash in the pan. They have their focus set on winning now and getting back to the postseason. With that in mind, its understandable the Dan Duquette has been one of the more aggressive GM’s this month of July. After picking up Scott Feldman and Francisco Rodriguez previously, he pulled the trigger on a deal for Bud Norris too in an effort to augment a rotation that has struggled to get consistent quality starts beyond Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman, and for the most part, Miguel Gonzalez.

Getting to Know Bud Norris

• Full Name: David Stefan Norris (Bud = Nickname)
• Born: March 2, 1985 in Greenbrae, CA
• Age: 28
• Height: 6′ 0”
• Weight: 220
• Bats: Right
• Throws: Right
• College: Cal Poly San Luis Obispo
• Drafted: 6th Round, 2006
• MLB Debut: July 29, 2009
• Signed Through: 2015

Scouting Report (Based on my stat and video analysis)

Fastball: 55 – 91-94 MPH; Not much movement; Effective when spotted down in the zone; average command of pitch

Slider: 65 – 84-86 MPH; Good late break; Swing-and-miss offering; mediocre command of pitch; gets away with mediocre command due to plus break on pitch

Changeup: 40 – 84 – 86 MPH; Little depth or fade; Below average pitch; lacks ideal velocity separation from fastball

Command: 55 – Solid-Average overall; At his best he locates his fastball on the low corners well and sets up his above average slider for the strikeout pitch; Has little feel for changeup and occasionally has lapses in fastball command causing the pitch to flatten out up in the zone.

Control: 50 – Average control; Above average strike throwing ability against right handed batters whom his above average fastball-slider combo plays more effectively against. Average to Below Average with lefties who have an easier time laying off the slider, resulting in fewer swinging strikes, and a tendency to try to nibble with them due to a below average changeup that will get hit hard if he leaves it over the plate.

Sidenote: Not sure if Norris has tinkered around with a cutter or not but I think a hard upper 80’s cutter could help neutralize his sharp platoon split. I noticed that back in 2010 when he threw his slider more in the 86-88 MPH range, he had more success getting left handed batters out. Easier said than done as he would have to be able to command the cutter with good bite in a consistent velocity range and that is difficult to hone overnight.

What The Orioles Gave Up

Josh Hader, LHP – Sad to see the local boy done good story leave town. The reality is though that he is still far away from the majors and with a crossfire delivery and current control inconsistencies, may profile better as a lefty reliever anyway. If that’s what he becomes, we may feel bad that he didn’t make it up with his hometown team, but this is a business, that’s who the Astros wanted, and a potential lefty reliever isn’t something to lose sleep over. Now, if Hader continues to grow into his lanky frame, improves his durability as a starter, sharpens his command and quality of his secondary pitches, and reaches his mid-rotation upside, we probably will regret including him the deal. Ultimately, he wouldn’t have been a factor in the Orioles plans, who are in “win-now” mode, until at least 2016, so it’s a gamble Dan Duquette is willing to make.

L.J. Hoes – LF – I just did a big “Welcome To The Show” profile on Mr. Hoes the other day, and now he’s gone. I speculated in my profile that part of the reasoning behind bringing Hoes up could have been marketing him in front of major league scouts for a potential deadline trade. Right I was, as the Orioles shipped (and by shipped I mean made him walk across the field) Hoes off to the visiting Astros where he will become an immediate starter in the outfield. Hoes deserves this opportunity and I’m actually somewhat glad to see him go. He has nothing left to prove in the minors and wasn’t a factor in a crowded Orioles outfield picture. He’ll get regular time in Houston and if he ever develops a little more in game pop, he’ll become a solid everyday starter and an ideal two hole hitter with his ability to post high walk totals and make consistent contact.

Competitive Balance Pick – I’m going to miss having this pick which is #32 overall, especially if the rumors that next year’s draft will be loaded are true. That being said, the draft is a crapshoot and this pick is a luxury the Orioles can afford to give the Astros.

Overall Thoughts

I get the reasoning behind the trade. The Orioles want to bolster the rotation for the stretch run without having to surrender premium prospects which they accomplished. But, is Bud Norris a guy they can count on to get the job done against the better lineups the Orioles will need to beat down the stretch and possibly in the playoffs. I’m not so sure. He strikes me as another Scott Feldman type. Both profile as solid No.4/ No.5 starters in a first division rotation; the kind of pitchers that are mostly dependable to give the team at least 6 innings each time out, will hold the weaker team’s lineups to 3 ER or less, but can be overmatched against the better team’s lineups and will get tagged for 4-6 runs IF they don’t bring their A game. Basically, what I’m getting at is I’m skeptical about whether Norris will much of a difference maker for the Orioles, especially against their AL East rivals.

Here’s Why:

On the season, left handed batters have hit Norris to the tune of .300/.365/.494 with 10 Home Runs allowed in 277 at bats. Basically, lefty batters have combined to hit like Manny Machado against Norris. Right handed batters have combined to hit .240/.305/.315 against him in 220 at bats. It’s no secret, the below average changeup is the main factor behind this split.

Norris also has a pronounced home/road split, pitching to a 2.92 ERA at Minute Maid Park in Houston and a 5.91 ERA everywhere else.

The pronounced home/road split also applies to his ability to get lefty batters out. Against 95 total lefty batters faced on the road, Norris has been hit to the tune of .356/.411/.659. That’s Miguel Cabrera esque.

I’m worried about how those below average numbers will translate to a ballpark like Camden Yards with a short right field porch tailor made for left handed power hitters.

I could be overblowing all of this statistical nonsense and he may end up working around his splits in his new home setting. After all, he absolutely seemed more comfortable pitching at the Astros home field. Perhaps, Bud Norris has a thing for pitching in front of the home crowd, regardless of the team he plays for. We’ll see. There’s really no way of telling how the home/road splits translate from one team to the next.

On a more positive note, another factor that can’t be overlooked is the stellar Orioles defense that will now play behind Norris. The Astros were on the lower end of the spectrum defensively so moving up to the Orioles defense could certainly help him overcome, or at least better hide his weaknesses. A stronger defense could help mitigate big scoring innings from happening by preventing fewer runners on base if/when Norris does struggle with the extra base hits allowed to left handed batters.

Ultimately, I’m expecting Norris to pitch around a 4.00 ERA and give the Orioles a winning chance in most of his outings. However, I’m still not sold this is a guy that can be counted on against the better hitting lineups versus right handed pitching like the Red Sox (1), Tigers (3), and Athletics (4), all teams the Orioles may need to count on him against in a big game down the stretch or possibly the playoffs.

Was this a fair trade?

Yes, in terms of value subtracted versus value added, I think Orioles did well giving up two B-level prospects and a Comp B pick for a decent No.4 starter who is under team control through 2015. However, getting back to the original points I made in the introduction to this post about the Orioles focus on getting to the postseason, I’m not sure Norris is someone the Orioles needed to pursue. He has a reliever’s two pitch arsenal and may not be able to hold his own as a starter at Camden Yards the same way he did in Houston. I’m okay with this trade but not in love with it. In a perfect world, I think the Orioles would have been better served to combine the players/prospects involved in the Feldman, K-Rod, and Norris trades into one mega package for a Matt Garza or Jake Peavy. I’ll never know if that was ever a realistic scenario, but a frontline starter is what this team needs to get past their contending rivals in the American League.

The Honorable Mention List (Because 100 Prospects Isn’t Enough)

Why have an honorable mention list? Because this is my one and only chance to save face when the inevitable happens and a few big time stars develop from the ranks of the unranked players who missed the cut for my Top 100. These are all the guys who have very intriguing profiles and just missed making my list. I only have 100 spots after all. There’s always going to be additional 25-50 names you can make a compelling case for. I have 25 listed here and fully expect several of them to outshine some of the bums I believed in but ultimately let me down on the Top 100.

HM/

Nick Tropeano – RHP – Astros – Age: 22 – Level: AA – Former Stony Brook ace just missed my Top 100. Had a tremendous year between A and A+. Needs to prove the velocity gains are for real with a strong season at AA. Great command of 4 average pitches. #3/#4 upside. Similar to Dan Straily.

Sean Nolin – LHP – Blue Jays – Age: 23 – Level: AA – Big sleeper lefty with a nice sinker. Potential #4 starter.

Adams was a 23rd Round pick out of Slippery Rock. I root for guys like this

Matt Adams – 1B – Cardinals – Age: 24 – Level: AAA – Might regret leaving him off Top 100. Big guy with 25-30 HR potential that has hit .300 at every level. Problem is he’s a bad athlete that’s limited to 1B and may struggle catching up to advanced velocities and breaking balls with his average bat speed.

Dan Vogelbach – 1B – Cubs – Age: 20 – Level: A – Everything I said about Adams, except much younger and has yet to play full season ball. Fat dude can flat out hit though.

Stryker Trahan – C – Diamondbacks – Level: A – Top high school catcher in last year’s draft. Hit well in SS ball. Could be in for big breakthrough this year.

Chris Stratton – RHP – Giants – Age: 22 – Level: A – Has a good, not great fastball/ slider combo. Not sure he’ll stick as starter yet.

Dorsyss Paulino – SS – Indians – Age: 18 – Level: A – Young, very athletic, great toolset. Need to see how full season debut goes before a jumping on bandwagon but has high potental.

Some think Heaney was a reach at #9 overall in the 2012 draft. Time will tell.

Andrew Heaney – LHP – Marlins – Age: 21 – Level: A – Strikethrowing lefty with good sinking fastball. Has limited upside but is polished and should develop into a solid #4 starter.

Nate Karns – RHP – Nationals – Age: 25 – Level: AA – Needs to prove he can stay healthy enough to handle a starter’s workload but Karns has premium stuff. Likely ends up in bullpen as a setup reliever.

Eduardo Rodriguez – LHP – Orioles – Age: 20 – Level: A+ Big sleeper prospect for the O’s. Has mid rotation upside. Detailed report on him here.

Robbie Erlin – LHP – Padres – Age: 22 – Level: AAA – Small lefty with middling stuff but throws strikes and knows how to pitch effectively. Might make a nice back of the rotation starter.

Matt Wisler – RHP – Padres – Age: 20 – Level: A+ Underrated sleeper that could jump onto more radars this year. Potential #4 control artist type starter. Young enough to improve that outlook.

Morgan is an alumnus of Roll Tide Nation

Adam Morgan – LHP – Phillies – Age: 23 – Level: AAA – Polished lefhander that nearly made the Top 100. Should make a nice back of the rotation starter.

Barrett Barnes – OF – Pirates – Age: 21 – Level: A – Not an elite talent and lacks ideal power but knows how to freakin hit and could be a nice find in the 2nd round for the Pirates.

Cody Buckel – RHP – Rangers – Age: 20 – Level: AA – Might regret leaving him off list. Doesn’t throw hard but pounds the strike zone and has the makings of a decent changeup. #4 starter upside. If he passes the dreaded AA test – not sold he will – he’ll definitely be on the Top 100 next year.

My pick for this year’s Minor League HR leader

Joey Gallo – 3B – Rangers – Age: 19 – Level: A – Mammoth power potential. I’m talking Chris Davis raw power. Will he hit enough for it to matter?

Hak Ju Lee – SS – Rays – Age: 22 – Level: AAA – Outstanding glove and can steal a base. Will the hit enough for it to matter?

Jesse Winker – OF – Reds – Age: 19 – Level: A – One of my favorite sleeper prospects from the 2012 draft. If he hits like he did in short season ball last year, he’ll jump onto everyone’s radar. Reminds me of Nick Markakis.

Bryce Brentz – OF – Red Sox – Age: 24 – Level: AAA – Another guy with big power but questionable plate discipline. May end up a late bloomer, Ryan Ludwick type. Could see time with the Bosux later this year.

Garin Cecchini – 3B – Red Sox – Age: 22 – Level: A+ Kid has a great hit tool and can hit for AVG. IF the power develops, he could become a quality everyday starter down the road.

As a Red Sox hater, I hope he doesn’t have a breakout year

Henry Owens – LHP – Red Sox – Age: 20 – Level: A+ Big sleeper prospect. Tall, lanky, projectable, and lefthanded – a scout’s wet dream –  that already throws hard but needs to develop more movement on pitches.

Kyle Parker – OF – Rockies – Age: 23 – Level: AA – Great athlete, former Clemson QB. Shows good patience at the plate and has good pop. Not sure he’ll hit for AVG yet. Another guy I’d like to see pass the ‘AA Test’ before including in the Top 100.

Bruce Rondon – RHP – Tigers – Age: 22 – Level: AAA – Potential closer. Can bring triple digits consistently. Needs serious work on control though.

DAS BOOT!!!

Max Kepler – CF – Twins – Age: 20 – Level: A – Premium 5 tool athlete from…GERMANY. Yep. Looking forward to seeing how his full season debut goes. Showed a lot of promise in short season ball last summer.

Carlos Sanchez – 2B – White Sox – Age: 22 – Level: AAA – Doesn’t hit for power but is a tremendous contact hitter who can hit .300 in the bigs and can steal 25 bases. Could end up a poor man’s Jose Altuve.

The Top 100 Prospects According To…Me, Part 2

26. Aaron Sanchez – RHP – Blue Jays – Age: 21 – Level: A+ Sanchez has rough command at the moment which may hold him back but I love the plus power fastball and improved secondary offerings. Has #1/#2 ceiling.

27. Taylor Guerreri – RHP – Rays – Age: 20 – Level: A – I’m bullish on Guerreri who is far from the majors but I think could be in line for a breakout season, establishing himself as a Top 25 guy next year. Throws a plus 92-95 MPH fastball with an outpitch curve.

Martinez Bullpen Sesh

28. Carlos Martinez – RHP – Cardinals – Age: 21 – Level: AA – I really like Martinez pitch ability and makeup. He’s undersized but don’t let that fool you. He brings a quality mid 90’s fastball and power curve. Needs to improve durability but has #2 starter upside.

29. Gary Sanchez – C – Yankees – Age: 20 – Level: AA – 50/50 chance at sticking at C. I think he can as an offensive minded catcher, with potential to hit for elite power and average if he improves his plate discipline and overall durability.

30. Tyler Skaggs – LHP – Diamondbacks – Age: 21 – Level: AAA Not as high on Skaggs as others. I think he’s more of a solid #3, Matt Harrison type, than the potential #1/#2 others project as his ceiling.

31. Anthony Rendon – 3B – Nationals – Age: 23 – Level: AA – Excellent defender. Lightning quick bat speed gives him 25 HR upside. Great batting eye allows for high OBP. Will he stay healthy enough for it all to matter?

Teheran in action with the Braves

32. Julio Teheran – RHP – Braves – Age: 22 – MADE MLB ROSTER – Apparently, Teheran has turned a corner this Spring showing signs of the pitcher that ranked #3 on this list two years ago. I may end up having him too low. Still has #1/#2 upside but I’m not entirely sold he reaches it just yet.

33. Jonathan Singleton – 1B – Astros – Age: 21 – Level: AAA – Singleton has a chance to be a very productive 1B who draws a crapload of walks and can put out 25-30 home runs in his prime. Could be up with the Astros after the all star break if he obliterates AAA pitching.

34. Archie Bradley – RHP – Diamondbacks – Age: 20 – Level: A+ Dylan Bundy’s high school rival. Great fastball velocity and potential plus secondaries. Control and command need serious work though. Far from a finished product.

35. Albert Almora – CF – Cubs – Age: 19 – Level: A – Reminds me of Christian Yelich when he was drafted. Has to prove himself over a full season but Almora has a tremendous natural feel for hitting. How his power and base running ability develop will determine his upside.

36. Jackie Bradley, Jr. – CF – Red Sox – Age: 22 – MADE MLB ROSTER – Bradley, former Gamecock CWS hero, brings a nice combination of OBP, speed, and plus defense, and should be able to put out 15 HR a season. Reminds me of the good Coco Crisp. My pick for A.L ROY.

Dodgers have 40 mil invested in this guy, or what Magic Johnson calls ‘chump change’

37. Yasiel Puig – OF – Dodgers – Age: 22 – Level: AAA – After a torrid Spring, Puig has generated some buzz in Dodgerland as a potential impact regular with tremendous power. Needs to work on plate discipline and keep weight under control or he’ll end up like washing out like Wily Mo Pena.

38. Nick Castellanos – 3B – Tigers – Age: 21 – Level: AA – Doubt he sticks at third. Also, have questions about his plate discipline but he has a great hit tool with potential for 20-25 HR power. High ceiling as an impact hitter but some bust potential too.

39. Chris Archer – RHP – Rays – Age: 24 – Level: AAA – Love Archer’s upside. His two seam fastball and slider combo is lethal. However, his ability to command them isn’t. If he can put it all together, has #1/#2 upside. If not, he’ll become a potential all star closer.

40. Jorge Soler – RF – Cubs – Age: 21 – Level: A+ I’m impressed with Soler, a big D.R. signee for the Cubs who brings light tower power and a rocket arm in RF to the table. I think he can hit for average too.

41. Trevor Rosenthal – RHP – Cardinals – Age: 23 – MADE MLB ROSTER – Rosy returns to the pen where he dominated last September in the Cardinals successful playoff push. Has potential down the road as a #2/#3 if he refines his secondaries enough to compliment his power mid 90’s fastball.

42. Gregory Polanco – OF – Pirates – Age: 21 – Level: A+ The raw, 5 tool talent Dominican had a huge breakout season at Low A last year. If success translates forward to higher levels I could see him developing into a Dexter Fowler type player.

Mike Olt in action for the Rangers

43. Mike Olt – 3B – Rangers – Age: 24 – Level: AAA – Not as big on him as others. He’ll be productive and hit for 20 – 30 HR power. But, I question his ability to keep the K’s under control as well as remain at 3B long term. Should be a solid everyday player.

44. Mason Williams – CF – Yankees – Age: 21 – Level: AA – Could be overrating him some but Williams is a premium athlete with great natural feel for hitting. Needs to show more durability. Reminds me of former Yankees CF prospect Austin Jackson.

45. David Dahl – CF – Rockies – Age: 19 – Level: A – Another 2012 high school draftee who absolutely destroyed short season ball. Reminds me of a potential Colby Rasmus.

46. Alex Meyer – RHP – Twins – Age: 23 – Level: AA – The big 6’9″ righty brings a mid 90’s fastball and much improved command from his college days at Kentucky. Potential mid rotation guy. A nice get from the Nationals for Denard Span.

Nicolino, the big prize from the Blue Jays mega deal

47. Justin Nicolino – LHP – Marlins – Age: 21 – Level: A+ – Really like Nicolino. Stuff doesn’t wow you but it’s all solid, and he just knows how to freakin pitch. At age 21, could end up exceeding current #3/#4 expectations.

48. Danny Hultzen – LHP – Mariners – Age: 23 – Level: AAA – Not as big on Hultzen as I was last year. Looks like a solid #3 starter at best. Needs to sharpen control issues that plagued him at AAA last year. The fastball and slider are still quality pitches.

49. Oswaldo Arcia – RF – Twins – Age: 22 – Level: AA – Short, stocky with good pop and a strong arm in RF. Reminds of a Dominican version of former twins OF Jason Kubel.

50. Noah Syndergaard – RHP – Mets – Age: 20 – Level: AA – Big Syndergaard fan. His 91-94 MPH fastball and plus changeup combo with good command gives him #2/#3 upside IF he can develop a better breaking ball.

– Prospects 51 – 75 here