Welcome To The Show, L.J. Hoes, OF

He’s paid his dues for a little over a year now down at Norfolk batting a consistent .300 last year and .304 this year before finally getting the call to the show. Yes, I’m well aware he got something of a token callup last September where he amassed a grand total of one major league at bat. This time, Jerome O’Bryan Hoes will be joining the team to actually play and potentially contribute. He had nothing left to prove in the minors. Welcome to the show!

Background Check

DOB: 1/06/90 – 23 years old

Height: 6’1″ Weight: 190

Birthplace: Bowie, MD

High School: St. John’s Prep (Washington D.C.)

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2008

Bats/Throws: R/R

Year By Year Prospect Rankings (According to Me)

2013 Rank: 5; 2012 Rank: 6;

2011 Rank: 3; 2010 Rank: 17

2009 Short Season Rank: 1

(The following in quotation marks was taken from my preseason prospect profile on Hoes)

“L.J. Hoes, another local-ish kid, comes in at #5. Along with [Xavier] Avery, Hoes is another veteran of this list. Despite being drafted a round later than X in 2008, I liked LJ a tad better as a prospect, naming him the No. 1 Short Season prospect going into 2009 with Avery right behind him at No. 2. Looks like I got that one right as 4 years later, the consensus considers him a better prospect than Avery and I have Hoes 5 spots ahead him now. What does that mean? Trust your instinct. Back in 2008, I remember older bro Harry telling me about Hoes earlier that year when Loyola baseball played against St. Johns in D.C. He said that kid is a stud and had a full ride to UNC and I was like, “oh, that’s cool I guess”, than a few months later he goes in 3rd Round to the O’s. LJ has always been a favorite of mine and I think he has a promising MLB career ahead of him even with his power and defensive limitations.

Scouting Report: (Grade C = Below Average, Grade B = Average, Grade A = Above Average, by MLB standards)

• Hit Tool: A- Shows great feel for making contact. Sprays the ball to all fields. Ceiling of a .270 – .290 hitter in the bigs
• Strike Zone Discipline: A- Strong disciplined approach. Doesn’t wiff much. Draws a good amount of walks. My kinda guy
  
• Power: [B- Solid] gap power at best. Swing not designed to generate much power to begin with. Could improve w/ time to league average (8-15 HR’s)
• Speed: B More quick than fast. Sound base runner with decent instincts. Capable of swiping 10-15 bags in the bigs
• Defense: B [Best suited for] left. Can play CF [or RF if needed but average at best defender at those positions]
• Arm: A- Strongest outfield arm according to Baseball America

Projected Role: Starting LF/ Platoon Bat

(Grade C = AAA filler, C+ = AAA Depth w/ chance to be late bloomer, B- = Backup MLB player, B = Bench player, can start out of necessity, B+ Platoon/Part Time Regular, A- Solid average starter, A = Above Average/Borderline All Star, A+ All star/Elite)”

Why He’s Here

The short and sweet answer? The bench is short a player. After optioning Danny Valencia back to Norfolk to make room for Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez, the Orioles have been carrying a three man bench consisting of Ryan Flaherty, Alexi Casilla, and Taylor Teagarden. Buck likes carrying extra relievers from time to time to keep his main bullpen guys fresh. Jairo Asencio has been the extra man in the pen lately and hasn’t seen much work. It’s his time head back down now as the void on the bench for another right handed bat will be filled by the L.J. Hoes addition.

Another factor into the timing of L.J. Hoes callup – and this is pure speculation on my part – could be a chance to market Hoes over the next couple days in front of major league scouts. With the July 31 trade deadline quickly approaching, Hoes could be a possible player involved in a deal for amother bat or starting pitcher should the Orioles decide to make another trade.

What To Expect

Initially, I’m expecting to see L.J. Hoes deployed as the DH against left handed pitching. His ability to play all three outfield positions could also lead to starts in LF, CF, and RF against left handed pitching with McLouth, Markakis, or Jones serving as the DH instead. With Henry Urrutia getting consistent at bats as the DH against right handed pitching, it will be tough to fit L.J. In the lineup consistently. However, I think he will take to the platoon/outfield backup role well. I’m expecting L.J. be an on base machine (.340 to .360) and bat somewhere between .260 and .280 in his part time role.

Prediction On Debut

Assuming he’s in the lineup against lefty Jon Lester today…I’ll say he goes 1-3 with a BB and an RBI double for his first MLB hit.

Welcome To The Show: Kevin Gausman, RHP

BY FAR…this is the most excited I’ve been about a ‘welcome to the show’ profile this season. Why? Because it involves profiling a rotation anchor in the making, Mr. Kevin Gausman!

The Future Is NOW

Background Check

DOB: 1/06/91 – 22 years old

Height: 6’4″ Weight: 190

Born and raised in: Aurora, Colorado

High School: Grandview HS – I hear the view is grand

Drafted: 4th overall, 2012 – Not even a year has passed and he’s in the big leagues. What a hoss

Previously Drafted: 6th Round, 2010 by Dodgers – Didn’t sign, electing to attend college at…

College: LSU – One of SEC’s finest

Well documented love of powdered donuts

Active tweeter – By far, my favorite Orioles prospect I follow on twitter. Has some quality tweets. Seems like a great kid.

Scouting Report (From what I’ve watched)

Fastball: 95-98 MPH – Lethal pitch with above average velocity and some run. He throws it for consistent strikes, usually working down in the zone. However, I have noticed a tendency for it to catch too much of the plate at times which could get him in trouble against big league hitters when he falls behind in the count.

Slider: 83-85 MPH – Much improved from his college days. While not consistent, at times shows sharp break. Shows decent command of pitch but will leave a couple hangers up in the zone on occasion. An effective offering that with continued refinement could become a third out pitch.

Changeup: 80-83 MPH – Just a straight awesome pitch to watch when it’s on. Flashes plus plus with great arm action (ideal velocity separation from fastball) and late fade. It’s a true swing and miss offering. Just ask Jackie Bradley, Jr.

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Gausman-Bradley-CH-SS.gif

Delivery/Control/Command: Gausman repeats his delivery well which features a high leg kick. He hides the ball well too and is consistent with landing with his front foot forward home plate. Great control. Doesn’t fall behind often and has has demonstrated a tremendous low walk rate with Bowie this season. Command could use work. A byproduct of his consistent strike throwing ability is the occasional tendency to have the fastball flatten out up in the zone. I’m being nitpicky but it could get him into some trouble with hitters sitting on first pitch or 2-0 count fastballs. He could spot his slider a better too.

Why He’s Here

First, I’m as shocked as you are that he’s here in the first place. I’m also a little disappointed that his MLB debut has to come on the road versus the Blo Jays. Even the most optimistic reports (Dan Connolly) suggested June as the earliest ETA for Gausman to make his way up to the show. But, we learned how Duquette and Showalter operate last year with the unexpected Machado callup. That is, we don’t shy away from rushing our premium prospects to the big leagues if they’re the best available option to us and they have the ability to handle the jump. The Orioles rotation has been very shaky this season with Chris Tillman the only one putting up consistent quality starts lately. Our other consistent starter, Wei-Yin Chen, hit the DL recently with an oblique strain. He may be out a good month or so which probably played a key role in the front office’s decision to bring up Gausman now.

What To Expect

First, let me tell you what not to expect

A) The yo-yo show to continue. The Orioles have handed out four different spot starts already this season (Josh Stinson, Zach Britton, Steve Johnson, Jair Jurrjens). This isn’t a spot start. Gaus pad is here to stay, not get optioned to minors after the start like the fugly four mentioned above. The expectation, as I understand it, is that he is ready to, at the very least, serve as a reliable no. 5 starter with the idea that he’ll be prepared for a major breakthrough next season a la Matt Harvey.

B) Yep, Matt Harvey. If/when Gausman improves his fastball location and develops a more consistently plus slider…he could have that type of impact…(probably) next year. I’m expecting some growing pains this season. Some starts, when he’s ‘on’, Gausman will dominate. There will also be some starts where his command is off he gets tagged for 4-5 runs.

Ultimately, I expect adequate overall performance from Gausman this year. By all accounts, he is more than capable of handling this jump. I’d like to think/hope he can post an ERA in the 3.75 to 4.25 range, giving us a chance to win most of his starts, with a combination of occasionally bad, occasionally brilliant outings throughout the season. He has done an excellent job at limiting walks at AA (only 5 in 46.1 innings pitched) so I expect he wont have issues consistently pitching deep into starts, a big plus for a rotation that has struggled with such.

Prediction On Debut

His esteemed debut takes place in Toronto against a Blo Jays lineup full of all or nothing hitters that pitchers with Gausman’s stuff can exploit when on their A game. Jose Bautista has been swinging a hot bat lately but he’s the only that really worries me. I’m expecting a quality debut for Gausman.

Predicted Final Line: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, Win

Welcome (Back) To The Show: Steve Johnson, RHP

Heeeeeee’s back. In a season full of surprises, Steve’s impressive performance last year both at AAA and with the Orioles might have been one of the bigger surprises. He seemingly went from run-of-the-mill AAA fodder to legitimate prospect overnight. As thoroughly broken down in my preseason prospect profile, he combines deception and mastery of pitch sequencing to keep hitters off balance despite a mediocre repertoire. Most Orioles fans are pretty familiar with Steve’s background being the local kid from St. Paul’s High School and the son of former Orioles pitcher and current MASN broadcaster Dave Johnson. With that in mind I’m going to skip the “Background Check” I usually do and go straight to the scouting report and expectations.

Height: 6’1″  Weight: 220
 Birthplace: Baltimore, MD   Age: 25

Scouting Report

– Fastball: 87-91 MPH. Pitch doesn’t have much life. However, Steve is very successful with it because he hides the ball well resulting in the pitch sneaking up on hitters. He also has supreme command of his fastball and does a great job spotting the pitch high and away out of the zone, getting hitters to chase.

– Changeup: 77-82 MPH. Might be his best pitch in terms of quality of pitch. Gets great arm action and sets up his fastball well, especially when he wants to go back to the fastball to put away a hitter with two strikes.

– Curveball: 68-72 MPH. Everyone loves a slow curve. Not the most exciting pitch in the world but it keeps hitters off balance as long as he doesn’t hang it up in the zone.

– Slider: 83-85 MPH. He’ll mix in an occasional slider to once again, keep hitter off balance. Not a particularly effective pitch though as hitters batted over .300 against it last season.

Why He’s Here

Steve received the callup because Miguel Gonzalez has a boo-boo on his thumb and apparently that requires a trip to the DL. The trip is retroactive to May 4 so Gonzo will be returning in 8 days once the blister fully heals. Once again, this appears to be a spot start type of callup rather than opportunity to run with a rotation spot. However, Steve was very impressive in his 46+ innings pitched last season, so its possible he could put himself in line to stick in the rotation some point later this season, if he comes up with a strong outing today.

What to Expect

It’s worth noting that after years and years of carrying the extreme, and I mean extreme, flyball pitcher label, Steve may be in the process of finally shedding that tag. It’s only three starts but he posted a much improved GO/AO of 0.93 at Norfolk. For year he has been sub-0.50 which is simply terrifying for a pitcher with aspirations of making Camden Yards his home in half of his starts. Perhaps, he’s added a two seamer or cutter to his repertoire in an effort to combat his flyball tendencies. Whatever the case, it will be interesting to see what types of pitches he throws today and whether he can maintain his new and (somewhat) improved GO/AO. I did my homework, I studied the matchup, I consulted the number crunchers, I ate my wheaties, and I’ve made a conclusion that Steve will turn in a solid outing against the Twins today. Not the only reason but one of the main factors: The Twins are 28th in the MLB in home runs hit at home which should theoretically bode well for him in a spacious flyball pitcher’s park like Target field.

Predicted Final Line

6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, and a W. I’ll say O’s win 8-3.

Welcome To The Show: Zach Clark, RHP

Wow. Let’s hear it for the UMBC baseball program. A public embarrassment to the sport of college baseball for many years, consistently finishing in the the bottom 20 of the 300 division 1 schools in RPI, they have little to hang their hat on. Today, it was announced that Zach Clark, former UMBC pitcher, was called up to the Orioles. He joins Jay Witasick and Wayne Franklin as the third former UMBC pitcher to make it to the big leagues. Up until last year, I never thought anything of him. Why should I? He was undrafted out of UMBC in 2006 and spent the next 6 seasons toiling in the minors as a mediocre organizational pitcher type, that they yo-yo from one level to another as a short term fill in. That perception changed with his breakout 2012 season that led the O’s to place him on the 40 man roster.

Zach Clark is now an Oriole. He beat the odds

Background Check

– DOB: 7/11/83. He’s a 29 year old rookie who will turn 30 in July.

– He’s a Newark, Delaware native and graduated from Newark High School back in 2001.

– According to Roch Kubatko, he signed his free agent contract with the Orioles in UMBC’s parking lot in 2006.

– Thanks to sticking with a more consistent routine and working with Rick Peterson, saw a velocity boost last season. Big reason why he’s considered a prospect now.

Scouting Report

Sum him up in two words: Groundball specialist.

None of his pitches are particularly good but the all have movement and can induce a high percentage of groundballs when he keeps them down in the zone.

Height: 6’0″ Weight: 200

Four Seam Fastball: 90-92 MPH. Major league average for a right hander.

Two Seam/ Sinker: 89-91 MPH. His bread and butter pitch. Has good late tail and can be effective when he keeps it low in the zone.

Cutter: 86-88. Change of pace offering mainly deployed to keep lefty hitters off balance.

Curveball: 75-77. Average offering with decent break that he typically throws when ahead in the count.

Naturally, the Miguel Gonzalez comparisons are going to be made because both reached the majors late and feature similar styles of mixing and spotting their pitches well despite having an overall average arsenal. However, Gonzalez has an outpitch in his changeup, and on occasion, the slider. Unlike Gonzalez who is a flyball pitcher, Clark pitches to contact more and uses his two seam and curveball to induce weak groundballs when he gets ahead in the count.

I’m assuming he’s hear to work as a long reliever but it’s possible they could have him make a spot start too against the Angels this weekend. I wouldn’t expect his stay to be long.

To me he profiles best as a strike throwing long reliever type in the bullpen who can make a spot start in a pinch. He’s just not overpowering enough for me to see sustained success as a starter in the big leagues although I wouldn’t be surprised if he exceeds expectations at first until the league makes adjustments.

He’s posted a 4.54 ERA in his first five starts with Norfolk this year. But everyone should know, I dig deeper than that. His FIP is a much more impressive 3.09 (thanks Fan Graphs) with the reason for middling ERA being a high BABIP (not uncommon for groundball pitchers with questionable infield defense behind him) and a well lower than average strand rate (meaning a lot of his inherited runners have scored and/or extra outs thanks to sub par defense have allowed for big innings). More importantly, he was brilliant in his most recent start (7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7  K, 5.00 GO/AO).

Why He’s Here

Zach Britton faltered after not belonging up this early in the season to begin with. Clark will likely be used as a long reliever and there’s a decent chance he may not even appear in a game and get optioned back to AAA in favor of an old man Fred Garcia or Jair Jurrjens for the weekend start in Anaheim. (Update: Yep, Old Man Garcia is coming up)

What to Expect

Not much. He’s here to provide extra depth in the bullpen before being sent back down when Freddy Garcia gets the call on Saturday. Still, a nice story and he could be back with O’s again at some point.

Welcome to the Show: Josh Stinson, RHP

Well, if we want to get technical, the title of the this fine piece of blog entry writing should be titled “Welcome back to the show”. Why? Because Barney Josh Stinson has a couple September cup-of-coffee appearances under his belt with the Mets in 2011 and the Brewers in 2012. That’s why. He’s still a rookie though and I plan on profiling all rookies before their Orioles debuts throughout the season.

Background Check 

– The Orioles claimed Stinson off waivers from the Oakland Athletics on April 4.

– Seems like a typical “one man’s trash, another man’s treasure” stunt from Dan Duquette and the boys.

– Stinson is an Atlanta, Georgia native. Cool

– He was drafted in the 37th Round out of high school by the Mets in 2006.

– You’d think the Braves would have taken him as a local kid.

– Anyway, always nice to see the long shots work their way to the bigs.

– DOB: 3/14/88. Which means he’s 25 years old

Scouting Report

Here’s video of his first strikeout with the Mets

Here’s video of his first save with the Mets

– Height: 6’4″ Weight: 210. Good size for a right handed starter. Has a clean repeatable delivery as well based on what I watched in the video links above.

– Four Seam Fastball: Clocks in around 92-94 MPH. Sometimes struggles with leaving it up in the zone. Out of the bullpen can touch 95-96 MPH.

– Two Seam Fastball: 91-93 MPH with good late run. Can be an effective groundball inducing pitch when located well. Out of the bullpen can touch 94-95 MPH.

– Slider: 86-88 MPH with good tilt. Capable of missing major league bats when located well.

– Curveball: 78-82 MPH. Mediocre pitch. Only used as a show-me pitch to keep hitters off balance.

– Changeup: 83-85 MPH. Below average. Lacks feel for pitch which will likely lead to troubles keeping left handed hitters off balance in the majors.

(Source: What I’ve read about him at Mets Minor League Blog and video I’ve watched of him pitching)

Why he’s here

As most Orioles fans know, Jake Arrieta has been an absolute train wreck and was sent down to AAA the other day. However, Stinson isn’t necessarily taking Arrieta’s place. With the doubleheader the O’s played on Saturday followed by four consecutive games from Sunday to Wednesday, a need for a spot starter for today’s contest would have existed regardless of Arrieta’s demotion to prevent one of the Saturday starters from working on short rest. Lo and behold, that is why Stinson is here. It’s his turn in the rotation at Norfolk and the O’s need someone to come up to make a spot start.

What to expect

Regardless of how Stinson pitches against the Blow Jays today, I expect he will be sent back down to AAA after the game. The good news for him is this is a golden opportunity for him to make a favorable impression on the coaching staff and it’s quite possible he could return again at some point in the season. Based on his minor league track record, I think could have a bright future as a reliever in the majors. He’s posted much better strikeout and groundout numbers in his time spent as a reliever where his fastball touches the mid 90’s more frequently. Also, the lack of a quality curveball and changeup won’t hurt him as much when he doesn’t have to pitch a second time through the batting order.

Prediction on Debut

The Blue Jays hitters have probably never heard or seen much of Stinson before so I’ll say he gives the O’s 5+ decent innings and a chance to win the ball game.

Final predicted line: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, and 4 K